There is an alternative to sea transport for Ukrainian grain, but it cannot quickly replace the country's deep-sea ports. Danube terminals, railways, road transport and the Romanian port of Constanta continue to take some of the cargo to world markets, while attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea increase uncertainty for carriers.
In October, at least seven cargo ships were attacked near the exclusive economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, the Associated Press reported. Two people died in the incidents, and at least 25 are missing. On October 5, a ship carrying corn was hit by a drone and later sank off the Romanian coast. Two people died, while 11 crew members were rescued.
“It is very worrying because these attacks on ships carrying grain, food and other products for the world market have recently increased and expanded“, said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric. He said this could affect global commodity prices.
The Danube takes part of the load
The most direct option outside the Black Sea ports is a combination of rail or road transport to Danube terminals and subsequent loading onto barges in Constanta. From there, the grain can be loaded onto ocean-going ships. Another option is for cargo to continue along rail and road corridors through the European Union to ports on the Baltic Sea.
European Commission data shows the scale of the gap. In March, about 20% of Ukrainian grain, oilseed and related exports went through the EU solidarity lines, which use river, rail and road transport. About 80% went through the Black Sea. About 3.9 million tonnes were exported along the Ukrainian sea corridor alone in the same month.
This means that land and river routes are an important safety net, but they are not an equivalent substitute. They require more transshipments, longer distances and coordination between different rail systems, trucks, warehouses and ports.
Higher costs and less capacity
Ukrainian wheat and corn exports shifted more towards rail in August after attacks on Black Sea infrastructure limited seaborne shipments. However, low Danube levels and high shipping costs are creating new constraints on this route, according to S&P Global.
The price effect is already being seen in markets. On August 28, wheat for delivery to Egypt was priced at $314 per tonne, almost $100 above the main market index, S&P Global said. With more expensive logistics, the difference is passed on to traders, producers, and end buyers.
The US Department of Agriculture points out that in 2025, Ukraine was the fourth largest exporter of corn and the fifth largest exporter of wheat in the world. For a country with such a share of the international market, the question is not only whether the grain can be exported, but whether it can be done in sufficient volume and at a price that maintains its competitiveness.
For now, the answer is partial: the Danube, Constanta, railways, and trucks can support exports, but not all of the cargo in the event of a prolonged collapse of sea supplies. In parallel with the search for logistical solutions, shipping security remains crucial. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance has strengthened its anti-drone capabilities on its eastern flank and will coordinate its actions with allies in the Black Sea.
Sources: apnews.com, spglobal.com, lemonde.fr