Brazil's corn exports to European countries could reach 1.65 million tons in October, up from around 200,000 tons in the same month last year, according to Stag International, which is forecasted to be driven by a drop in Ukrainian supplies and a weaker harvest in the European Union.
According to the company's assessment, Brazil is effectively taking Ukraine's place in the European corn market. Ukrainian exports to neighboring European countries have declined after Russian attacks on infrastructure, including ports.
Drought shrinks European harvest
Drought has reduced EU corn production in 2026 to around 48 million tons - the lowest level in this century. Against this backdrop, corn imports into the bloc have increased by 40% from the start of the 2026/27 season to mid-October, according to European Commission data.
The United States remains the largest supplier to the European market, followed by Brazil. However, Stag International estimates that US corn is now less competitive than South American offers, which also include Argentine supplies.
“FOB premiums indicate that South America will maintain its competitive advantage in December and January, and possibly into February,“, the Stag International report states.Record harvests, but strong domestic demand
Brazil and Argentina have harvested record corn crops in 2026. However, Brazil's exports remain generally below past levels as domestic demand is supported by grain ethanol production.
Shipping plans at Brazilian ports suggest that corn shipments to Europe could exceed 1 million tonnes in October. Spain is among the main destinations listed.
The National Association of Grain Exporters raised its forecast for total Brazilian corn exports in October to almost 7 million tons - more than 1 million tons more than the same month in 2025. The association did not provide a breakdown by destination.
Stag International warns that if U.S. corn exports do not accelerate significantly, prices on the Chicago Board of Trade may have to fall further to restore the U.S.'s competitiveness and market share.
Sources: reuters.com, portaldoholanda.com.br