Exports of Ukrainian grain and oilseeds have fallen by approximately half due to the intensification of hostilities in the Black Sea. This is stated in a new quarterly report to the US Congress, prepared by inspectors from the US Department of Defense, the State Department and the US Agency for International Development.
The document covers the period from July 1 to September 30, 2026. It states that the escalation of military action led to a “50% reduction in the volume of Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports, which together account for 60% of Ukraine’s total exports by value”.
According to the report, disruptions to supply chains have caused significant upheaval for US agricultural companies. The document does not specify separately what the impact has been on each particular crop or on the different export routes.
The Black Sea remains a key route
Ukraine relies heavily on Black Sea ports to export grain, sunflower seeds, rapeseed, soybeans and processed products. When shipping is restricted, cargo must be redirected to overland and Danube routes, which generally have lower capacity and higher transport costs.
This puts pressure on Ukrainian producers and exporters, making it more difficult to clear storage facilities for the new harvest and increasing delivery costs. The impact is also felt by international traders and companies that use Ukrainian agricultural products.
US has allocated $210 million
During the reporting period, the US side directed approximately $210 million to programs supporting Ukraine’s agricultural sector. The funds are intended to support production, logistics and exports affected by the war and restrictions on transport routes.
The report was also prepared by USAID inspectors, even though the agency no longer operates as an independent entity. In 2025, the State Department assumed responsibility for a significant part of its functions and ongoing programs.
The publication of the report covering the period through September 30 shows that the consequences of hostilities in the Black Sea are being assessed not only as a problem for the Ukrainian economy, but also as a risk to US agricultural businesses and international agricultural commodity supplies.
Sources: oig.usaid.gov, oversight.gov