International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its global copper price outlook amid expected growth in demand for the metal and low global metal reserves, and also raised its gold price outlook due to its safe haven status, the agency said in a report.
In 2025, the gold price outlook is $3,000 per troy ounce (previously $2,800), in 2026 - $2,700 per troy ounce (previously $2,400), and the 2027 price outlook is maintained at $2,000 per troy ounce. “Further growth in the geopolitical premium, driven by gold's safe-haven status, confirms our higher assumptions for 2025-2026 and the medium term.“ “Concerns about a weaker US dollar have increased investment inflows into gold, leading to a record price increase,” the analysis said.
Fitch also raised its copper spot price forecast to 9,500 USDper tonne in 2025 (previously 9,200 USD). The copper price forecast for 2026 has been increased to 9,000 USD per tonne (previously 8,500 USD), and the agency expects the copper price to be 8,500 USD per tonne in 2027. Fitch analysts note that the copper price forecast for 2028 has been increased, reflecting stable consumption growth and low levels of copper inventories. In addition, the agency's analysts expect global demand for refined copper to grow by 2-3% in 2025 and 2026 due to strong interest, especially in China, despite the weakening global economy. Global refined copper supply is expected to increase by 1.5-2% in 2025 and 2026. Long-term global copper consumption will remain high due to the energy transition.
Fitch maintained its 2025-2026 aluminum price forecast at $2,500 per tonne, but raised its medium-term aluminum price forecast to $2,500 per tonne in 2027 and 2028 from $2,300 per tonne. The agency also expects aluminum demand to increase from about 74 million tonnes this year to 80 million tonnes in 2030. Reduced production will gradually return to the market and new capacity will be built to meet this demand, Fitch notes.