There is potential for much greater revenue collection due to the size of the gray sector - 22-35%. However, we observe overestimated expectations for the terms in which this will happen. This was said by the economic advisor of the Bulgarian Industrial Association, Assoc. Prof. Shteryo Nozharov, on the air of "Hello, Bulgaria" on "Nova TV".
In his words, the terms for increasing collection cannot be short. "The current budget entered into force in April, so until the end of the year is a truly extreme term. For next year, the expected collection will improve again. In the last 5 years, it has grown by an average of 5 billion - this is normal potential. However, this growth will increasingly slow down. Net primary expenditures can increase by only 4.9% for 2026 - half compared to this year. This calls into question the automatic mechanisms for indexing salaries. There must be a buffer of 0.3% in the budget deficit. Personnel costs have increased three times in the last 10 years. 1/3 of the population has interrupted health insurance rights", explained Nozharov.
For his part, economist Georgi Vuldjev believes that there is a big problem with the budget. "We were warned in all the years after 2021 - there was an overtaking growth in current expenses with double-digit tax growth. Despite this, the deficit is uncontrollable. We have big problems with collection, because too high a goal was set. An advance dividend was collected from state-owned enterprises - 900 million, as well as half a billion from banks, but despite this, the deficit is on the way to going beyond the limits. Next year, the overtaking growth in expenses must be stopped - it cannot be double-digit for sure. It's about salaries and maintenance of the departments," Vuldzhev commented.
In turn, economist Vladimir Sirkarov pointed out that the procedure for Budget 2026 should have already begun. "Let's hope it will be activated, because there is less and less time left for discussions and specifying the details. I would like to see a budget without a deficit, which is very difficult. It can happen if the growth of expenses is limited and a better forecast for revenues is made. The capitalization of BDB and BEH gave its effects, which were called accounting tricks - 5.5 billion in total. These are state expenses. Maintenance, salaries, all these large expenses that were populist, must be limited. With good economic growth, expenses will decrease relative to GDP," Sirkarov predicted.