A colleague described today's dialogue in parliament on the draft budget for 2026 as a roller coaster - this is the so-called increase in social security contributions. But the biggest problem of the budget will be the case with "Lukoil". This was said in the program "Face to Face" on BTV by Krasen Stanchev, founder of the Institute for Market Economics.
So far, "Lukoil" has hardly paid any "profit" tax, while VAT and excise duties on "Lukoil" products brought about 1 billion euros into the budget annually. The budget does not provide for a buffer if there is such a large lack of revenue. The risk with "Lukoil" was created by politicians, but I do not see what useful move the politicians have at the moment, Stanchev said.
One of the ways to increase revenue in the budget is the Estonian model of corporate tax - everything that is reinvested is taxed at zero, because this brings income in the future. There are other things that can be done - it is pointless to give money "on the sly", and social benefits are ineffective. But the main problem for the budget for next year will be the risk posed by the sanctions on "Lukoil", Stanchev also said.
It was necessary to do what other countries such as Germany did - to set conditions for the buyer, to make sure that no money from "Lukoil" enters Russia, which means control over transactions. One reason for this is indecision, another is fear, the third is laziness and the fourth is the expectation of elections, the economist added.
Next year, debt will almost certainly continue to be taken on, there will be an increase in the so-called social contributions or the tax on labor, which will reduce the income of workers. A large part of this money is paid by the employer. Ultimately, there will be a budget deficit, because the share of the shadow economy will increase. This 2% increase in contributions does not cover the deficit of the National Social Security Institute. Rather, labor taxes should be reduced in order to pay more, Krasen Stanchev pointed out.