Ships are already refusing to come to Bulgarian ports for grain export, and the country has about 5 million tons of wheat for sale. This was stated by the chairman of the National Association of Grain Producers Iliya Prodanov to BNT. According to him, other vessels are delaying their arrival and remain in the southern part of the Black Sea.
“The Black Sea is starting to become dangerous for wheat exports“, said Prodanov. He described the situation as dynamic and warned that if ships do not start arriving normally again, Bulgaria may not be able to export the available harvest.
Black Sea exports are key to the market
Prodanov pointed out that world wheat production is about 800 million tons, but approximately 200 million tons are involved in international trade. According to his data, about 50 million tons of this volume come from Russia, 20 million tons from Ukraine, about 10 million tons from Romania, 5 million tons from Bulgaria and 10 million tons from Kazakhstan.
According to him, in individual years the Black Sea region provides almost half of the world's wheat trade. Therefore, the restriction of shipping may affect not only Bulgarian producers, but also the international market.
On October 6, the Council of Ministers announced that two commercial ships in the Bulgarian economic zone of the Black Sea had been hit by drones. After the incidents, professional organizations warned of increased risks for shipping and higher costs for transporting grain.
No quick alternative to sea transport
Transitional quantities from last year's harvest were exported in July and after the end of the harvest, and the export of the new harvest began approximately in August. Prodanov said that since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the cost of transporting grain from the Black Sea basin has increased five to six times, while insurance has increased many times.
According to him, Bulgaria has no real short-term alternative to sea ports. The European Commission has been discussing the possibility of alternative routes to Greek ports since 2021, but the rail connection with Greece does not allow for the rapid transfer of millions of tons of grain.
„Currently, Bulgaria does not have the necessary infrastructure to export these quantities of grain by rail“, Prodanov said.He called for immediate measures to ensure the safety of shipping to Bulgarian ports and for long-term work on a route through Greece. According to him, if sea exports are blocked again, the country will be left without sufficient options for action.
Risk of surpluses and shortages of warehouses
Bulgaria consumes about 1.2-1.3 million tons of wheat annually. If the remaining quantities are not exported, they will accumulate as a transitional residue, Prodanov pointed out. This, he said, could put pressure on prices and create storage problems.
The chairman of the grain producers warned that warehouses would not be enough for the production of two harvests, since in addition to wheat, Bulgaria also produces sunflower, corn and barley.