Annual inflation in Bulgaria will accelerate to 5.2% at the end of 2026, the Bulgarian National Bank forecasts. The average annual growth in consumer prices is expected to be 4.6% this year, 3.1% in 2027 and 2.9% in 2028.
“Annual inflation will accelerate to 5.2% at the end of 2026, while average annual inflation is expected to reach 4.6% in 2026, 3.1% in 2027 and 2.9% in 2028“, the BNB said.
Weaker growth in 2027
The central bank expects real gross domestic product growth to reach 2.8% in 2026, slow to 2.5% in 2027, and accelerate to 2.9% in 2028. 2.7%
The main driver of economic activity remains domestic demand, especially private consumption. The contribution of net exports is negative.
The current account deficit for the last 12 months as of July reached 8.1% of GDP. This is its highest level since 2009.
Energy and services accelerate inflation
Inflation, measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices, reached 5.0% in August 2026, compared to 3.5% in December 2025. Energy products and services made the greatest contribution to the acceleration.
According to the BNB, the conflict in the Middle East has increased the prices of oil and fuels, which has increased the production and transportation costs of enterprises. Labor market conditions remain historically tight, but signs of a gradual cooling have emerged in the second quarter.
Three scenarios due to uncertainty
The BNB has added three alternative scenarios to the baseline forecast – favorable, unfavorable and severely unfavorable. They consider the possible consequences of shocks of varying strength and duration on the supply and prices of energy commodities.
The forecast is based on data and information published up to September 18, 2026, as well as a macroeconomic forecast prepared as of September 21, 2026.
Sources: bntnews.bg