How will Donald Trump's deal with Vladimir Putin affect the war in Ukraine? Why are drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea, including off the Bulgarian coast and in Romanian territorial waters, increasing and how can NATO's Eastern flank be protected, commented on "The Network" on the "Hristo Botev" program; Ruslan Trad, an analyst at the Atlantic Council of the United States.
The deal between Trump and Putin and the withheld intelligence data on Ukraine
"Even if there is such a development, Ukraine can rely on its European partners. Even the participation of Japan, which has shared a lot of its satellite data with the Ukrainian armed forces over the years, is interesting. It is no coincidence that Tokyo has developed numerous joint projects with the Ukrainian army, including in September regarding drones and drone defense.
So Ukraine can rely on its allies, of course, not on the scale that the United States has. But there is still another layer here. When it comes to such a decision, we saw what happened with Starlink or the Starshield defense system, which is important for the Ukrainian armed forces. Even with such a development, when the speed and access to Starlink were reduced, there were immediately problems within the US administration itself, because not everyone agrees with such decisions.
Certainly, the statements that Trump made contradict the legislation in the United States and, above all, the decisions of Congress. Such measures can only be taken if they are passed by law, because sanctions are passed by law and can only be lifted by another law. At the moment, there is no mood in Congress for something like this.
But let's not be naive. There are various signals supporting the thesis that the Trump administration and he personally are trying to acquire business assets from "Lukoil". He has been promised such. There is even talk of joint development of plants and access to resources on the territory of the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia."
Why the elections in Ukraine remain a controversial topic
"Putin also has an interest in Zelensky not being the president of Ukraine. But surprisingly, a few days ago, the Russian Federation announced that it is against holding elections throughout Ukraine, so it contradicts itself. The surveys additionally show a picture that is in favor of Zelensky at the moment. Especially considering the fact that a large part of Ukrainian society does not support holding elections during a war."
What would happen in the event of a Ukrainian capitulation
"There are even scenarios that are being worked on, because there is always the premise of what would happen if the Ukrainian armed forces retreated and the leadership of Ukraine signed a capitulation, and these territories were given to the Russian Federation.
We have already seen such episodes in history. Not so long ago. The Russian Federation will always want all of Ukraine, not just Western or Southern Ukraine. But let's say it gets what it wants right now. It has gained firm control and international recognition of the occupied territories.
The next attack will come because this is how the Russian Federation operates, and it has built it into its strategy. This is not a secret. It is not something conspiratorial. Russia wants to have complete control over the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.
It is no coincidence that the Russian armed forces continue to escalate the war in the Black Sea, trying to cut off all corridors to and from Ukraine's Black Sea points and ports. What we are observing along our coasts is by no means a coincidence.
And this is what Giorgia Meloni is talking about, that we will discuss another occupied country, but the confrontation will not stop there. It will not stop at the Ukrainian border. Because we already have signals from the Russian side that an escalation on a broader front is being prepared, including by building an infrastructure for the "Geran-4" and "Geran-5" drones, which can easily strike positions far inside European territory. The Russian Federation has built a huge infrastructure of this kind, which is already operational and is located close to European borders.
We would certainly be faced with a very problematic new neighbor, who has declared Bulgaria and European countries as enemies. And this is a unilateral action taken long ago by Moscow. So in this sense, we will certainly not have peace.
And imagine what will happen inside Ukraine. For Russian forces, this will certainly not be a walk in the park."
Why the Black Sea Drone Attacks Are Right Now
"It is directly related to the events on the front in Ukraine, which are currently not good for the Russian command. We have two counteroffensives by the Ukrainian forces, which in principle surprised the Russian command. One is in the north, the other is on the southern front. We know that there is also an active operation that has managed to push out quite a few Russian positions. In this context, and also because the Russian army began this escalation a few months ago, in recent weeks it has been aimed categorically at putting pressure on the ports of Ukraine, because from there Ukraine supplies its treasury with fresh revenues, and not with arms supplies.
No arms or military material passes through there. Exports and imports of various civilian products, such as cement, building materials, grain, etc. pass through there. However, all this is a big burden on the Ukrainian budget.
Military supplies, which are often said to almost pass through this corridor, do not pass through there, at least under the agreement that existed, although it is no longer active, between Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Turkey. This corridor, which passes by Romania and Bulgaria, is precisely a trade corridor.
Apparently, we already have a new strategy that Russia will apply more and more often, trying to restore its positions in the Black Sea. We know that after the attacks by Ukraine in the last two years, a large part of the Black Sea Fleet was transferred to the Caspian region or was sunk. This is a serious problem for Russia as a whole. It is also trying to displace Ukraine as a supplier of grain products and produce to major markets in the Middle East and Africa."
And what should member states do from now on?
"Bulgaria must take very serious steps to protect critical and civilian infrastructure, especially that located near active military zones. This means the entire coastline.
The next step is to introduce specialized artificial intelligence software, which neighboring countries, including North Macedonia, have. Such software can monitor border areas 24 hours a day without human intervention. This is completely feasible and not that expensive. Our armed forces know very well what we are talking about. This is also in line with European defense projects.
What was announced as an additional partnership, because such partnerships already exist with Romania and Turkey, is absolutely good news for us. I hope Bulgaria will be an active participant, because ultimately we imagine that in such events this directly affects the local economy. No fisherman will go out to sea without worrying. Even if there are no further attacks, this will affect tourism in these areas next year.
So Bulgaria has no other interest than to strengthen its defense, no matter how much it does not want to give this money.
The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense's demands to NATO
"NATO has the ability to give us whatever we want. Not only because it has the purely technical ability to fulfill such a request, but also because for some time now significant resources have been allocated to the defense of the eastern flank, which starts from Finland. It is no coincidence that Finland and other countries in the Baltic region insisted on a strengthened partnership in the Black Sea region, because they see it as part of a common defense line. There has long been such a redirection of resources and readiness to react with mobile groups in the event of more serious attacks and a general danger to the territories of the allies in these sectors. So, in my opinion, it is entirely possible to fulfill this and, accordingly, to demonstrate strength, which is by no means small.
Therefore, in my opinion, this decision was very urgent and welcome.."
Forecast
"Let us all be ready for more serious escalations. We need to stop avoiding the word "war", as is being done now. This is irresponsible. The population needs to know that we live in a very active region and that at the very least we need to be prepared as a society, to know that something could happen, and to know how to react. For me, this is extremely important and I hope we never have to experience it in practice."
Source: BNR