The goal of Russia's attacks is to dissuade Europe from its support for Ukraine and to test NATO's readiness to react.
This was stated to the Bulgarian National Radio by the former chairman of the National Security Agency and former Minister of Interior Tsvetlin Yovchev, emphasizing that there is a real danger for Bulgaria from drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea:
"There is a real danger and the harmful consequences resulting from the Russian strikes are already present - the insurance of cargo ships, on which imports and exports from the Black Sea ports depend, have become more expensive. This leads to a negative economic effect".
If the escalation continues, traffic through the Black Sea may become difficult and even stop, which will cause extremely serious economic damage to Bulgaria, he predicts.
"We are seeing an escalation of Russian hybrid attacks, including through sabotage, on the territory of NATO and EU countries - the preparation of a drone attack on the Leipzig airport, the arson of antennas on the territory of Bulgaria, which was very recent and we still do not have enough information to comment on it, the burning of weapons warehouses. All this shows that the effect of a targeted escalation is being sought by Russia, which aims to dissuade Europe from supporting Ukraine and to test NATO's readiness to react in such a situation. It is no coincidence that the attacks are carried out in such a way that the perpetrator has the opportunity to deny involvement and transfer the military risk of subsequent actions to NATO, and not to Russia,", commented Yovchev.
According to him, the cautious position of the ruling party towards Russia is due to their desire in a foreign policy aspect to demonstrate neutrality in relation to the war in Ukraine and in a domestic political aspect - they aim to obtain the election results they desire:
"Such a position, demonstrating neutrality, does not protect us, demonstrating neutrality will not protect Bulgaria".
Rapid measures are needed in the military field to protect ourselves from the great threat associated with shipping in the Black Sea, Tsvetlin Yovchev emphasized and specified:
"We are lagging behind in terms of radars, modern multi-purpose fighters, we currently have no capabilities for air defense and etc. Very urgent measures must be taken in this direction".
He defined as positive the request for the relocation of NATO forces and assets to our territory in order to protect the territorial waters in the Black Sea, "but it is not clear when this will happen and therefore the state must take urgent measures to create capabilities so that we can guarantee this security".
"When we move the traffic to our territorial waters, another very important effect will be achieved - this risk of escalation will be transferred to the Russian side. In the 12-mile zone, where our territorial waters are, if there are attacks, they will be interpreted differently in terms of aggression and triggering Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
Expectations are for a different type of Russian sabotage and information hybrid attacks related to the spread of Russian propaganda, Yovchev pointed out and added:
"We must strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure and enable the services to strengthen counterintelligence and surveillance on our territory. Hybrid threats cannot always be responded to by conventional means. Often, the effective way is also through hybrid methods. The EU must quickly make Russia see that it will pay a high economic price for this escalation. The measures must be much more drastic in terms of economic sanctions, even if this is at the expense of the economic interests of one of the countries.".