The presidential elections could turn into not only a competition between the candidates, but also an assessment of the government. This was commented on by sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov from “Market LINKS“ on bTV. According to him, the low turnout and shifts in public attitudes could lead to a result different from preliminary forecasts.
“These elections have a different characteristic and it is that they turn into a vote of confidence or no confidence in this government that is currently in place“, Zhivkov said.
According to him, society is divided between people who continue to support the ruling party and voters who are even withdrawing from the political forces for which they voted in the parliamentary elections in April. The sociologist specified that he does not expect one large protest wave, but several smaller mobilizations on geopolitical, financial and economic topics.
Turnout may remain below 30%
As of 6:00 p.m., just over 20% of voters had voted, or about 1.3 million people, bTV reported, citing Genoveva Petrova from “Alpha Research“. She defined the pace of voting as a reason to expect a new anti-record in free elections in Bulgaria since 1989.
“There is a very high probability that we will finish today with a voter turnout that is below 30%,“ said Dobromir Zhivkov. Genoveva Petrova described the low turnout as a strong signal to the political elite and the ruling party.
Earlier, an exit poll by “Myara“, commissioned by NOVA, reported 15% turnout as of 3:00 p.m. The data refers to a presidential vote with 27 presidential candidate pairs and about 6.59 million citizens with the right to vote.
Low interest and different logic of the presidential vote
Sociologists point to several possible reasons for the low mobilization: fatigue from the next election, the absence of their own candidates from two of the major parties, and the lack of strong protest sentiments. Presidential elections differ from parliamentary elections because voters do not determine the composition of the National Assembly, but support a presidential candidate pair.
The last independent presidential vote in Bulgaria was held in 2006. In the 2021 elections, turnout was around 40-40.5% in the first round and approximately 34% in the second round, said Boryana Dimitrova from “Alpha Research“. By the end of election day, it remained to be seen whether the low turnout would weaken the protest vote or increase the weight of party opposition in the result.
Sources: btvnovinite.bg, nova.bg