The 2027 Budget is making too gradual a turn as the country moves towards a serious fiscal risk, economist Georgi Angelov said on the “This Sunday” programme. He expanded on Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s figurative comparison and described the budget as “a truck without a driver” that must change direction before reaching the precipice.
“I think we need a sharper turn. It would be better to make a sharper turn but avoid the precipice than to worry about whether someone is being jolted around,” Angelov said.
The 2026 Deficit According to Angelov
According to him, in 2026 Bulgaria will post its largest budget deficit in the past 30 years – nearly 6% of gross domestic product. Angelov linked this to higher inflation and an increase in public debt.
“That is actually how a financial bubble is inflated, and if it bursts, the consequences will be very serious,” the economist said.
Angelov pointed out that against the backdrop of the expected results for 2026, the 2027 budget looks like an improvement. In historical terms, however, it will once again be among the proposals with the highest deficits of the past three decades.
The Dispute Over One-Off Measures
Economist Adrian Nikolov said that some of the measures limiting the growth of the deficit are one-off. As an example, he cited the windfall profits tax, which, in his view, affects a broad range of companies and has already triggered serious opposition from businesses.
Nikolov also commented on the uncertainties surrounding the second pension pillar. “We do not know exactly how the measure was supposed to work – whether it is a temporary measure for one or two years, after which the normal mechanism is restored, or whether the change will be permanent,” he said.
According to him, if the change is temporary, working people could be deprived of savings amounting to several thousand euros, which they would otherwise accumulate over two or three years. Nikolov stressed that even if such an approach were to provide partial assistance to the budget, it would not cover the several billion in missing funds in the state social security system.
What Lies Ahead for Bulgaria
Nikolov said that the 2027 budget had not been presented by the end of October and described this as a failure to follow procedure. According to him, the government continues to use temporary solutions despite its previous promises of a lasting improvement in public finances.
He said that Bulgaria could remain under the excessive deficit procedure until 2029. Angelov warned that the country is among the major recipients of European funds and that, if the problem deepens, the European Commission could restrict funding.
“I hope that the announced measures have been coordinated with the European Commission in advance and that it will not come to letters and similar threats,” Angelov said.