If it was 3%, we would have a chance to cover the inflation criterion. It is about a distance from the three countries in the Eurozone with the lowest inflation – currently Lithuania, Finland and Italy, with around 0.7-0.8%. In the last 12 months, we have permanently higher inflation than these three countries.
This was explained to the BNR by Adrian Nikolov, an economist from the Institute of Market Economy.
"The July assessment will be negative. It's almost guaranteed," he said.
A caretaker government is unlikely to get us into the Eurozone, whether we meet the criteria or not. There may be an extraordinary request for a convergent assessment in the fall, the economist pointed out.
However, the risk of staying with another caretaker government seems not small, he added.
According to him, with a purely formal consideration of the criteria, we may enter the middle of 2025, and the most conservative forecast is for 2026.
Uncertainty about the date to a certain extent hinders the preparations, Nikolov believes.
Regarding the amount of the minimum wage, the expert commented that the business should prepare for a minimum wage of "just under 1100 BGN".
The wait we are in is hurting investment intentions. Political instability hinders them, noted Adrian Nikolov. According to him, an improvement in this indicator can be reported only after the country's entry into the Eurozone.