On November 13, 2026, the world will not end because of a scientific forecast. The date appears in a mathematical model published in the journal Science on November 4, 1960, but the calculation is conditional and does not describe a nuclear war, natural disaster or the sudden disappearance of humanity.
The article was written by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot. They analyzed 24 historical estimates of the size of the human population and sought a mathematical relationship in its development over the previous approximately 2,000 years.
The resulting curve shows that if the population continued to grow in the same way, on November 13, 2026, it would reach mathematical “infinity.” In the original article, this is formulated as follows: “On that date the human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown during the past two millennia.”
This is a limit of the formula, not a realistic forecast of something happening on Earth.
In 1960, around 3 billion people lived on the planet. According to UN data, the population reached approximately 8.2 billion in 2024, but the growth rate is already significantly lower than the one used in the model. In the organization’s latest demographic forecast, humanity will continue to grow, but will reach approximately 10.3 billion people only in the mid-2080s, after which a gradual decline is expected.
There is a discrepancy in the date cited as the point when the actual population began to lag behind the calculated curve. Some publications point to the beginning of the 1970s, while others indicate around 1993. The overall conclusion is the same: the mathematical extrapolation from 1960 cannot serve as a forecast for demographic development in the 21st century.
What the Date Actually Means
The model assumes a continuous acceleration of growth, without sufficiently accounting for changes in birth rates, mortality, the economy and social behavior. These are precisely the factors that alter the demographic picture. Therefore, November 13, 2026, is a historical mathematical curiosity, not a scientific warning about the end of the world.
The topic has an older context. In 1798, British economist Thomas Malthus warned that the population could grow faster than food production. Centuries later, the 1960 forecast drew on a similar concern, but expressed it through a mathematical formula. Modern UN data show not infinite growth, but a slowing growth rate and an expected demographic peak in the 2080s.