The fifth vote of no confidence against the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov differs from the other four - mostly in the prospects that it can open for political change in the medium term. By Vesselin Stoynev.
Although insufficient to overthrow the government, the fifth vote of no confidence against the cabinet of Rosen Zhelyazkov will gather more votes than the previous onesPhoto: BGNES
How is the fifth vote of no confidence against the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov different, if its failure is still a foregone conclusion? And doesn't he cement the ruling party again, like the previous four?
The differences are not in the short-term result - that the vote will be unsuccessful, but in the prospects that it can open for political change in the medium term.
Is there a deal with the pro-Russian parties?
Although insufficient to overthrow the government, he will gather more votes than the previous ones - practically the entire opposition, according to preliminary applications. Moreover, under the leadership of its democratic part - PP-DB. This leadership temporarily fixes the problem with the demarcation line between the pro-European and Russophile opposition. Because the most outspoken formations on the "eastern side" of the demarcation line are neither invited nor desired for the vote, but they will support it. And the co-sponsors MECH (the softest form of the forces beyond this line) and APS did not participate in the public presentation of the vote. Nevertheless, the joint votes of the democratic opposition with the pro-Russian opposition will be the basis for the attacks of the ruling party with the aim of delegitimizing the vote. And it will even be suggested (despite the democratic opposition's constant claims that it will not get on the "Russian train") that a new governing coalition is being formed, which will actually be led by Rumen Radev if we go to early elections.
Of course, it is not necessary for the parties supporting the vote of no confidence in the government to be the new governing alternative. This was very clearly seen in the only successful vote of no confidence in Bulgaria, which brought down the government of Kiril Petkov 3 years ago - it happened with the votes of GERB, MRF, "Vazrazhdane" and "Ima takiv narod" (which were part of the cabinet). These formations did not have a plan "for later" and did not form a government either in the same or in the next parliament. Now, the leading initiators of the vote of no confidence have an opportunity to show that if they gather the votes of the entire opposition – 105 deputies, they are not so far from being able to overthrow the government, even though they do not have a plan "for later" together. Moreover, the fall of the cabinet does not necessarily lead to new elections, but to a spin of the parliamentary roulette again with a first term for GERB and, for example, if Boyko Borisov so wants, with the help of Delyan Peevski and ITN and BSP, he can again be prime minister. This large opposition minority, however, will for the first time categorically demonstrate that, united against Peevski and the backstage, which makes the ruling majority concrete, it is subject to even greater internal tension and in the near future may be melted by Peevski or all formations within it may melt noticeably.
A step towards expanding support for PP-DB
For PP-DB, this vote seems to be a means of achieving the strategic task of establishing themselves as the main opposition force and in the next elections to independently collect significantly more votes in order to lead a governing alternative. The topic of the vote - the conquered state - has been their main battle for years. But it is unlikely that the extensive 80-page reasons for the vote and the parliamentary debate will lead to a significantly wider audibility of their theses, which are also well known to the public - no matter that they are condensed with numerous specific examples and arguments from the current year. The more serious effect of this vote will be the very request for a more categorical and vocal opposition, which together with the increased protest activity will lead to the consolidation and expansion of the PP-DB supporters.
Change of the political model or implosion
However, the demarcation lines "corruption-anti-corruption" and "East-West", which are the basis of the political instability of recent years, remain insurmountable and no new combinations can jump over them. This portends another increase in pressure on the political system, which can be overcome only after new elections and a change in the party or at least in the party-leader configuration in this or the next parliament. This vote of no confidence could be an initial step on this path, and how long it will last depends on whether political and civic activists will be able to catalyze such changes in socio-political attitudes that will lead to a restructuring of the political model, or whether it will remain stable for a long time before reaching an uncontrollable implosion.
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.