Veselin Stoynev's comment:
The differences between the recently concluded municipal council elections in Pazardzhik compared to the previous ones at the end of October 2023 are not so drastic at first glance. The turnout of 35% is a few points lower than the previous vote, but then there were mayoral elections, which traditionally pull the participation up, so in comparative terms it has not dropped, although it remains low. The municipal vote is still seriously fragmented – 2 years ago, 15 formations entered the local parliament, now – 14. GERB was still far from first place – third, but now they are even lower – sixth.
The only big difference is the DPS, which then did not win a mandate, and now in the form of “New Beginning“ is the winner with 8 mandates. And then votes were bought, as now, but the visibility this time was much stronger, and the intolerance of the accumulations and the inaction of the institutions seemed to have reached the limit of tolerance. At that time, the main power factor in the municipality was the long-time mayor Todor Popov, who dominated with the coalition “New Time” and 10 municipal councilors, and now he has only three from the VMRO-BND list, but it is not clear whether he still has his proxies among the five councilors from his former party “Svoboda“, the two from MIR and one from “Gergyovden“.
The significant differences
The big difference in the elections in Pazardzhik is that feudalization is shifting from Todor Popov to DPS-New Beginning (unless they unite). In addition, PP-DB not only retains its second position in the local parliament, but also increases its votes by 30 percent, while GERB falls from third to sixth place, losing a quarter of its voters. In this situation, the mayor from PP-DB Petar Kulenski will have to work with floating majorities again, as after his victory in the runoff over his rival for the mayoral post Todor Popov. Now, however, the situation seems more radical, after his own party headquarters submitted the strategy "all against DPS-New Beginning". "We are ready to abandon party selfishness, because if there is no unity against Peevski, Pazardzhik will follow the fate of "Bulgartabac" and "Lafka", said Asen Vassilev immediately after the elections. The question is whether this call sign can become a political strategy at the national level.
The President in an "anti-Peevski" coalition
The revelations of President Radev regarding the mayor of Varna from the PP-DB, Blagomir Kotsev, who has been arrested for four months, also contribute to establishing a common denominator between local and national in terms of Peevski's influence. According to the president, referring to publications, the Ukrainian businessman who appeared as a secret witness in the case against the mayor was expelled from the country in early July by the acting chairman of the National Security Agency, Denyo Denev (who is associated with Peevski and whom Radev refused to appoint as head) for socially dangerous activities and money laundering. But two weeks later, Denev himself reversed his decision and returned the businessman to the country.
Moreover, the president stated that he had not received information from the National Security Agency (DANS) on this case, although by law he has the right to receive information from the agency of equal volume and content, along with the prime minister and the speaker of parliament, and concluded that others who do not have the right to receive it receive it and use it for selfish purposes. Radev described the elections in Pazardzhik as an emanation of the captured state, and linked the Varna case to the functioning of the rule of law in general, going far beyond the problem of limiting his powers vis-à-vis the special services, and called for the activation of the resistance forces of society so that we do not return to the darkest episodes of dictatorship and robbery.
Obviously, President Radev is increasingly actively involved in an "anti-Peevski" coalition. At the parliamentary level, it began with the open cooperation of PP-DB with MECH and "Velichye" in a vote of no confidence and with unsolicited, but not denied, support from "Vazrazhdane". Due to the same pro-Russian and Eurosceptic positions as "Vazrazhdane", President Radev is also finding it difficult to collaborate fully with PP-DB. But the more the threat of a full-scale takeover of the state is more tangible, the more an "anti-Hitler" coalition against Peevski seems possible, albeit only in a thematic, not a full-scale version. Moreover, for PP-DB, Radev is an electoral threat. In the event of early parliamentary elections, if he appears on the party field, he will alienate some of their voters, being perceived as the new great alternative, and they - as part of the status quo, because they are burdened by the assembly, although they are now a fierce opposition. If they shorten their distance with Radev too much, they risk losing some of their hard-line voters, for whom any compromise with politicians on the issues of Russia and Europe is unacceptable.
Will GERB emerge from the shallows
Boyko Borisov is now on the move, for whom it is no longer possible to react only with verbal defense. The governing majority, nominally led by GERB, has already accumulated quite a few problems this month alone, and even more difficult tests lie ahead: how will it resolve the issue of the crisis at the top of the judiciary and what budget for next year will it propose that will not deepen the deficit and increase inflation.
Borisov has always been a skilled tactical player and, in the best case scenario, he could negotiate with Peevski non-irritating temporary bosses at the head of the prosecutor's office, the Supreme Administrative Court, the closure of the KPONPI, the dismissal of even Denyo Denev at the head of the National Security Agency, plus a moderate overhaul of the government, which is full of very weak ministers. This would keep the ship afloat, but with the “Peevski anchor“ he cannot get out of the strategic shallows that Borisov himself has driven him into.