German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is struggling to push through two key bills on pensions and military service, fueling fears that the political instability in France could soon be repeated in some form in Europe's largest economy.
Merz's conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats had promised to guarantee more stability when they entered into their "marriage of convenience" five months ago after the collapse of the unstable three-party ruling coalition that had governed before them.
The historic package of government spending measures agreed between the two parties helped them to iron out their differences to some extent and prepare the ground for a joint government. But from day one, tensions arose in the coalition, which has a fragile parliamentary majority, and the cause was the parliamentary crisis surrounding the election of Merz as chancellor, whose candidacy failed in the first vote and he was elected only on the second.
Although the coalition leaders maintain good and collegial relations, they have difficulty getting their deputies to adhere to party discipline. Many conservatives close to Merz are frustrated by the necessary compromises, given that in their election campaign they promised radical change, which made secret ballots particularly risky, as the election of the chancellor himself showed, for example, lawmakers told Reuters.
Challenges for Germany
Merz, who had no managerial experience before taking office as chancellor, preferred to stay out of the internal struggles both within the coalition and within the ranks of his own party.
"If the coalition continues on this path, it will not bring any significant change," said Philipp Köper, a political scientist at the University of Hanover.
Analysts point out that governance is complicated by distrust between and within the parties themselves, as well as by the heterogeneous ideological nature of the coalition, the lack of managerial experience of the cadres in the "Merz" cabinet and the scale of the challenges facing Germany.
However, the coalition must act quickly as the country's economy shrinks for a third straight year and the unreliability of its largest defense partner, the United States, makes Germany even more vulnerable at a time of growing national security concerns from Russia.
The rise of the far right
The bill, which would restore voluntary military service and pave the way for the re-introduction of barracks if necessary, is urgently needed to bolster the combat capability of the armed forces, which have been neglected in recent years, say advocates of the legislation. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has promised that the bill will come into force next year, a deadline that so far seems unattainable.
The recent turmoil in Germany comes against the backdrop of the fall of several French governments in the past year, which portends political paralysis and a strengthening of support for the far right in the EU's two largest economies.
Support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has increased in direct proportion to the decline in that for the conservatives and the Social Democrats. According to the latest opinion polls, if the election were held today, the far right party would become the first political force in the country.
Deputies from the conservative youth organization warned last week that they would refrain from supporting the pension bill, which is one of their party's landmark compromises with the Social Democrats. The legislation would freeze pensions until 2031, while also encouraging citizens to work longer.
According to them, the legislative proposal cements privileges without any consideration of Germany's aging population, and the younger generation will ultimately pay the price.
Will compulsory military service return in some form?
Meanwhile, conservative and social democrat lawmakers tried to rewrite the defense minister's bill to introduce voluntary military service even before he himself submitted it to parliament.
While the German Social Democratic Party (SPD) is pushing for voluntary service, and the conservatives of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc are pushing for some form of compulsory service, the parliamentary leaderships of the two factions have agreed to call up conscripts on a random basis if voluntary service fails to attract enough young people.
However, Pistorius rejected the "unfair compromise", prompting the parties to cancel a joint press conference at the last minute. Although the coalition is expected to find a way out and agree on new compromise options, analysts fear that they may be unsatisfactory and be achieved too slowly, and trust between the parties has already been damaged.
Merz has been criticized for his reluctance to intervene – for example, when his conservatives rejected the Social Democrats' choice of a constitutional judge whom both parties had agreed to select, which undermined the SPD's confidence in its coalition partner.
His critics also accuse him of focusing too much on foreign policy, which has earned him the nickname Außenkanzler, or "foreign chancellor", due to his successes in foreign policy at the expense of domestic policy.
Merz has built a lasting relationship with Donald Trump, despite the US president's dissatisfaction with Germany's trade surplus and defense spending. This has also helped to improve tense relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Since June, Merz's approval rating has fallen by about 12 – 15 points to around 27%, a much worse indicator compared to that of his predecessors, making him one of the least popular chancellors in recent times.
Translated from English: Nikolay Dzhambazov, BTA