Contrary to Russian propaganda, Ukraine is currently winning this war. Even US President Donald Trump, who in February scolded his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky for being forced to give in to Russian demands because he "has no trump cards", has now declared that "Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is capable of fighting and winning".
This is what Yuval Noah Harari, a historian, philosopher and professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, wrote in an article for the French publication L'Express.
He is the author of the bestsellers "Sapiens", "Homo Deus" and "Nexus". When the conflict erupted in 2014, Ukraine seemed completely powerless in the face of Russian aggression, and the Russians easily seized Crimea and other parts of eastern Ukraine.
The war entered a more intense phase on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched an all-out offensive aimed at subjugating all of Ukraine and ending its existence as an independent state.
At the time, Russian leaders and many observers around the world expected Russia to capture Kiev and inflict a decisive defeat on the Ukrainian army within days. Even Ukraine’s Western supporters were so unconvinced about Ukraine’s chances of survival that they offered to evacuate President Zelensky and his team and help them establish a government in exile. But Volodymyr Zelensky chose to stay in Kiev and fight, reportedly telling the Americans: "I need ammunition, not taxis." Ukrainian forces, though less well armed, stunned the world by repelling the Russian assault on Kiev.
The Ukrainian army then counterattacked in late summer 2022, winning two major victories in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions and liberating much of the territory captured by the Russians during the first phase of their invasion.
It would take Russia 100 years to conquer Ukraine
Since then, despite limited successes on both sides, the front has remained virtually unchanged. The Russians are trying to create the impression that they are advancing relentlessly, but the fact is that since the spring of 2022 they have failed to capture a single strategically important target such as Kiev, Kharkiv, or Kherson.
By 2025, at the cost of 200,000 to 300,000 soldiers killed and wounded, the Russian army has so far managed to capture only a thin strip of border territory, representing, according to the most reliable sources, about 0.6% of the total territory of Ukraine.
At the pace at which they are advancing in 2025, it would theoretically take the Russians about 100 years and tens of millions of casualties to conquer the rest of Ukraine. The reality is that in August 2025, Russia controls less Ukrainian territory than it did in August 2022. The situation is reminiscent of the Western Front during World War I, when ruthless generals sacrificed tens of thousands of soldiers to capture a few kilometers of muddy ruins. Patriotic newspapers often covered up the scale of these follies by publishing maps that supposedly showed major advances.
But the most important factor in these maps is their scale. As historian Toby Tucker notes, World War I newspapers often used a deliberately large scale that made the "progress" seem superficially impressive, but any astute reader could see that it was insignificant.
In many newspapers, accurate geographical data categorically contradicted the constant reports of "achievements" and "progress". The same can be said of the recent Russian offensives.
Land, Sea, and Air
It made military sense for Ukraine to conduct tactical retreats and preserve its forces and soldiers’ lives, while allowing the Russians to wear themselves out by launching costly attacks with little gain.
The truth is that Ukraine has managed to get Russia into a stalemate. As retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan recently wrote, it is as if, more than three years after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States had managed to capture only 20% of the country, while suffering a million casualties in the process. Would anyone consider this an American victory? At sea, Ukraine’s results are just as impressive. On February 24, 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had complete naval superiority, and it seemed that Ukraine had no way to counter it. One of the most famous incidents of that day occurred on Snake Island.
The flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser "Moskva", radioed the small garrison, saying: "I am a Russian warship. I suggest you lay down your arms and surrender to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and casualties." In response, the garrison sent the following message: "Russian warship, go to hell."
Although Snake Island was quickly captured by the Russians, the Ukrainians retook it by the end of June 2022. By that time, "Moskva" and many other Russian ships were already lying on the bottom of the Black Sea.
Through innovative use of missiles and drones, the Ukrainians successfully neutralized Russia's naval superiority, changed the very nature of naval warfare, and forced the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to seek refuge in safe harbors far from the front lines. Russia also failed in the air. While during its 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, Israel took control of Iranian skies for about 36 hours without losing a single manned aircraft, Russia has so far failed to take control of Ukrainian skies.
The Russian air force has suffered significant losses, most notably during the Ukrainian attack on a Russian strategic bomber in June. Russia responded by relying on long-range missiles and drones to terrorize Ukrainian cities.
Ukraine has refrained from such retaliation and has largely avoided striking civilian targets inside Russia, but Ukrainian drones have demonstrated significant capacity to strike airfields and infrastructure, especially oil refineries, hundreds of kilometers inside Russian territory.
Western Will—Ukraine’s Weak Link
The Ukrainians have achieved all of this without direct military intervention from outside. So far, the only third party to directly intervene in the war is North Korea, which has sent over 10,000 troops to fight for Russia. NATO countries have provided Ukraine with enormous support with weapons and other resources, but no NATO troops have officially participated in actual combat operations.
It should also be remembered that before February 24, 2022, and for a long time after, NATO countries refused to supply Ukraine with many types of more modern heavy weapons and restricted the use of other weapons. Some of these restrictions are still in force.
In 2022, the Ukrainians achieved victories in Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson with limited armament. If they had received full support from the very beginning, they could have won the war before the end of 2022 or the summer of 2023, before Russia could rebuild its army and military economy. In 2025, the weak link in Ukraine's defense still lurks in the minds of its Western friends. Having failed to achieve air and naval superiority or to penetrate Ukraine's land defenses, Russia's strategy is to outflank the Ukrainian position by attacking the will of the Americans and Europeans.
By spreading propaganda that Russian victory is inevitable, the Russians hope that the Americans and Europeans will become discouraged, withdraw their support for Ukraine, and force it to surrender.
Causing to succumb to this propaganda would be disastrous not only for Ukraine but also for NATO countries, which would lose a significant part of their credibility, as well as their best defense against growing Russian threats.
Ukraine - Europe's best military asset
As Russia continues to expand its army and military economy, Europe is seeking to rearm. But in the meantime, the largest and most experienced fighting force standing between the Russian army and Warsaw, Berlin, or Paris is the Ukrainian army.
The Polish, German, and French armies each have roughly 200,000 soldiers, most of whom have never seen war. The Ukrainian army, by contrast, has roughly a million soldiers, most of whom are battle-hardened veterans. After two weeks marked by Russian warplane incursions into Estonia and drones over Poland and Romania (and possibly Denmark), Europeans should reflect on the fact that if Russia were to attack Europe tomorrow and the United States chose to stay out of the conflict, Europe’s greatest military asset would be the Ukrainian army.
The U.S. military itself has much to learn from Ukraine’s combat experience and its advanced arms industry. In drone warfare in particular, its innovation and wealth of data make Ukraine a world leader.
This is probably one reason why President Trump has recently become more sympathetic to the country. He likes to support winners.
Nations are made of stories It is impossible to predict how a war will unfold, as it depends on future decisions. But in one important respect, Ukraine’s victory is already decisive and irreversible. War is a continuation of politics by other means.
War is not won by the country that conquers the most territory, destroys the most cities, or kills the most people. War is won by the country that achieves its political goals. And in Ukraine, it is already clear that Vladimir Putin has not achieved his main military goal: the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.
In many of his speeches and essays, Putin has argued that Ukraine has never been a real nation. This was the central message of his long essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", published in July 2021. According to Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is nothing more than a fictitious entity promoted by foreign powers with the aim of weakening Russia.
He started this war to prove that the Ukrainian nation does not exist, that Ukrainians are actually Russians, and that if given the chance, Ukrainians would gladly join Mother Russia. No one knows how many more people will die because of Putin’s illusions and ambitions, but one thing is clear to the world: Ukraine is a real nation, and millions of Ukrainians are ready to fight tooth and nail to remain independent from Russia.
Nations are not made of lumps of dirt or drops of blood. They are made of stories, images, and memories in the minds of people. No matter how the war unfolds in the coming months, the memory of the Russian invasion, the atrocities committed by Russia, and the sacrifices made by Ukraine will continue to fuel Ukrainian patriotism for generations to come.