Daniel Smilov's comment:
Bulgaria enters the eurozone on January 1st, and with this the formal aspect of our integration into the EU ends. With this step, our country becomes a member of the core of the union and its goal will now be to pursue average levels of income and prosperity in it. At the same time, both Bulgaria and the EU are entering a new cycle of political instability and change. 2026 will be the first year in two and a half decades in which we will not be able to simply rely on political inertia and moving in tandem with other countries - truly strategic choices will have to be made both domestically and in the European plan.
The good thing is that 2025 ends with an impressive burst of democratic energy, catalyzed by the inclusion of young people in politics. The unprecedented mass protests also showed the clear preference of the majority for a European, free and developed Bulgaria.
The European Framework
Next year, the main challenge facing the EU will come from the behavior of its long-time partner - the USA, represented by the Donald Trump administration. This administration is the first to set itself the task of contributing to the disintegration of the union in its security strategy. Attempts to persuade countries to leave the union are not ruled out, although this will not be easy: for example, even in Hungary the vast majority (70-80 percent) is against leaving the Community. However, there will be serious pressure from the American side with the aim of sabotaging common European decisions. Bulgaria's accession to the declaration of Italy, Hungary and Malta on Russian assets is one such relatively innocent example. But in fact, the main problem will come from the fact that the US will prefer that the EU does not have common trump cards for conducting an independent foreign policy, and Bulgaria will often be faced with the choice between loyalty to the EU or our overseas partners. Bulgarian interests require that we work for a strong EU without antagonizing the US - a task that is difficult, although not impossible.
The second problem is the withdrawal of the US as the guarantor of Europe's security and Trump's readiness to divide the world into spheres of influence with Russia and China. The US would like to benefit economically from the benefits of contacts with Russia, while shifting the cost of Europe's defense to the Europeans themselves. American companies, for example, could become intermediaries in the sales of Russian energy to Europe, while Europeans - divided into separate countries - would buy more and more weapons from the US to guarantee their security. In order to prevent such a development, from which Bulgaria would only lose, a unified EU with a common foreign and defense policy is needed. If the European caravan continues, there will still be individual dogs barking around. The point is that Bulgaria should not be among them and should not contribute to the collapse of the caravan.
The third major difficulty is the war in Ukraine. In any scenario in which Ukraine is not completely conquered by Russia, Europe will be the guarantor of its sovereignty. The thesis that is being instilled in our country is that once a truce is reached, our commitments to Ukraine will immediately cease. It must be clearly stated that as long as Ukraine exists, it will be an important part of our European defense. Putin's aggressive behavior is escalating and will only be encouraged by complete success in Ukraine. From this perspective, the future of the EU as a peaceful and stable union depends on keeping Ukraine at least in its current size and military capabilities. If this Ukraine disappears, in order to guarantee similar levels of security, the EU will have to invest huge amounts of money in its defense in the long term. From this point of view, the loans we are now giving to Ukraine are by far the cheaper option. The problem is that if the aid is not sufficient, timely and adequate, it may also lead to the second, much more expensive option described.
The fourth difficulty is the division in the EU. There are countries that are ready to sabotage common actions - such as Hungary and Slovakia, but there are others. In order to maintain its effectiveness, the EU will have to give leading countries the opportunity to move forward on certain issues: defense, financing of common projects, foreign policy. Countries that do not want to support them may be given the exceptional opportunity not to participate, as in the case of the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine. Accordingly, they will be able to count on less solidarity on other issues.
The problem is that such a solution would lead to a multi-speed Europe, which Bulgaria has always been against so far. The time has come to change our position and support the deepening of integration on certain issues, while at the same time not joining the group of marginals, but remaining with the core.
Domestic Policy
In domestic politics, 2026 will pose a huge task - the creation of a pro-European majority that can protect the country's position in a strong and dynamic EU.
Until now, GERB and MRF have been parties of Euro-Atlantic inertia and have stabilized the direction of the country. MRF today is a function of the plans of its leader Peevski, whose main task is to leave the "Magnitsky" list. To solve this task, MRF may be with the EU, but it may also seek the approval of the Trump administration - this has already happened with a change in this party's position regarding military aid to Ukraine.
GERB is also strongly divided between the EU and Trump for the same reasons - their key figures are also in "Magnitsky", and Borisov is nominally not, but is descriptively in the motivations for the list. The good thing is that GERB is connected to the EPP - a connection with the European family, which no longer exists under New Beginnings. If these two parties do not change and have the opportunity to influence the future government, they will probably pursue a policy of maneuvering between the EU and the US: however, this could leave us between two chairs.
Against this background, the PP-DB predictably remains the pro-European party in Bulgaria, which would unequivocally defend membership in the EU and NATO. A government with its participation in the next parliaments would be a guarantee for maintaining the country's current course in support of a strong EU.
The entry of a possible Radev party into the field is also unknown, which could seriously change the situation. If Radev wants to lead Bulgaria to the Orbán and Fico club, this would add to the internal risks for protecting the national interest. And indeed, if the EU collapses and we return to a "Europe of sovereign nations", Bulgaria will teleport back to the 90s. But it will also have to guarantee its military sovereignty itself and not rely on common European markets and funds. What kind of strategist would want something like that? Alas, there are some.
In a serious situation like this, Bulgaria continues to struggle with the following phenomenon: some of the pro-European parties have as leaders people with an extremely serious corruption reputation. The Peevski-Borisov tandem brought hundreds of thousands to the squares of Bulgaria. It was said that the vast majority of these are people with a strong European feeling. But at the same time they are disgusted that the European cause is being used to cover up corrupt and autocratic shamelessness. And they cannot imagine that the European face of Bulgaria is the face of this very tandem. From this perspective, perhaps it is time for those who are in favor of Bulgaria's European development to acquire the appropriate political leadership.
Whatever the difficulties, Bulgaria has proven once again that it can deal with them in a civilized and democratic manner. The young have learned to be free and democratic, while many lamented their political culture. This is not only the hope, but also the resource that we have in some very challenging times.