If the protests limit the influence of the Borisov-Peevski tandem, the decisive battle will be between the advocates for the development of Bulgaria as a Western European country and Radev's future Eurosceptic party, writes G. Lozanov.
The Bulgarian mega-event of 2025 was the protests at its end. Not only because of their scale (the most massive during the transition), but also because of the generation Z, which entered political life through them. And it turned out to be a slap in the face - both for the old players, who had had enough of power, and for the Eurosceptics, who were determined to take it away from them.
The new young people showed both of them that they want to live in a democratic Western country, in which they have the self-confidence that they were born (after the Viden winter) and are now ready to defend it. Their participation in the protests is a democratic value, not only in itself, but also with its cheerful potential to awaken the citizen vote as a whole. So let's not get back into an electoral spiral, the tautological result of which is due to the clientelistic, controlled and bought vote.
That's why those who were threatened with falling without it immediately jumped up: enough with these “genzites“, if only they weren't the only ones in the squares. No, of course not, but it is they, with their generational intolerance towards political demagogy, who are encouraging previous generations of the democratic community that the end of disappointing compromises is coming. And its representatives in parliament will now be able to make politics not in assemblies, but in skirmishes with those who order the outrages.
Expectation for dismantling the Borisov-Peevski model
The public discontent, like a fast train, went through three stages – against the budget, against the government, against the model. The ease with which it caused the withdrawal of the budget and the resignation of the government creates an expectation that this time it will also lead to the dismantling of the model associated with the unregulated distribution of public goods (to put it mildly). This seems possible because the bearers of the model (the protests identify them in the person of Peevski and Borisov), who declared themselves as staunch Euro-Atlantics, have for some time been smoothly moving towards the Eurosceptic niche, where Kostadinov and Radev have long positioned themselves. And the defenders of democracy will be able to simultaneously resist the rule of law and the pro-European orientation, instead of, as they have been forced to do so, in the name of one, having to accept the circumvention of the other. And first with Radev they tried to oppose Borisov and Peevski, then with Borisov and Peevski to Radev, which doubly demoralizes their electorate.
So that it doesn't happen like with the 2020 protests.
However, won't there now be a timid and then ruthless restoration of the model, like after the 2020 protests, and after the previous ones from 2013/14? Isn't Tsantsarova's dismissal a demonstration that even new protests can do nothing to prevent "it being as it was"?
There are two trends that seem to change the perspective - domestic and foreign policy. The internal political one is the consolidation of the representation of the democratic community around the PP-DB, as a result of their own negative experience of seeking temporary allies among those they are fighting against, instead of attracting those with whom they have shared values (no matter how strong they are at the moment).
An expression of this understanding is the agreement reached for a common candidate of the democratic community in the presidential elections. Because we remember well how the vote generated by the protests in 2020, the spark of which was ignited by the DB with Hristo Ivanov's action in “Rosenets“, was scattered by a colorful uncoordinated troupe – starting with the showmen from ITN, who won the elections without having participated in the protests, passing through unidentified political entities such as “The Poisonous Trio“ and “Stand Up.BG“ of Maya Manolova together with the suddenly activated “Movement 21” of Tatyana Doncheva, until we reach the BSP, a hereditary source of obstacles on our path to the West, and the openly protesting vaccinated anti-vaxxers from “Vazrazhdane”. Not to mention Rumen Radev, who with his raised fist won support for himself at the time, but took it away from the PP-DB in the long term.
Therefore, it should be dramatically clear to them now that their advantage is not in political games, but in the solidarity of values, which has been joined by the generation Z that has taken to the squares as of today. And their chance is to defend their position without mincing words, radically enough, as Assen Vassilev interrupted that ill-fated commission with the remark "Who ordered this outrage", which became a civic hit and played a role similar to Hristo Ivanov's action in "Rosenets".
The foreign policy trend is related to the shaking of the liberal consensus in Euro-Atlantic societies and their gradual entry from the era of liberal democracy into the era of autocrats, where the rule of law gives way to the right of the strong.
The decisive battle is also ahead in Bulgaria
The process began long ago with the terrorist pressure of Islamic fundamentalism and continued with the Kremlin's aspirations for a “new world order“, coinciding with the old Soviet one and imposed by means of hybrid war (propaganda plus corruption). But when the war became hot with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU and the US stood on the other side of the front next to Ukraine in still unwavering unity. Until Trump, himself inclined to achieve his goals by force, turned Putin from a war criminal into a partner. Thus, the front between the right of the strong and the rule of law has moved between the US and the EU - with a tendency for Trumpists, similar to Orban, to claim power in the EU as well. They are pushing the same front within individual countries, agreeing with Trump that the points of view of Russia and Ukraine are equivalent (not of aggressor and victim) and a deal must be made with Putin. This gives them a certain lead, although not as quickly as they would like. Inevitably, the decisive battle between the defenders of a United Europe and the Trumpists (some of them outright Putinists) and more generally between democracy and autocracy is also coming in our country, perhaps as early as the next elections.
The Eurosceptic niche of the Trumpists, according to the new political fashion, has begun to overpopulate - outside of it, in defense of the rule of law and our pro-European orientation, in fact, only the PP-DB are. Delyan Peevski, from the most ardent Euro-Atlantic and supporter of Zelensky, remained only an Atlanticist, even declaring himself against any further aid to Ukraine and joining the Trump-Orban battle with Soros. So much so that the parliamentary group of the MRF-NN submitted a proposal worthy of “Vazrazhdane“ - to create a commission to investigate the Soros Foundation in Bulgaria.
Boyko Borisov did not support the commission, but recently he has spoken about his friendly relations with Trump and Orban, which he previously demonstrated with Merkel. The government with the GERB mandate once voted with the EU countries that are in favor of freezing Russian assets, and a second time with those that thwart their use for military aid to Ukraine. Thus, in a geopolitical context, the positions of Radev, Kostadinov, Peevski and partly Borisov converge - even more so since they are all against PP-DB.
What kind of Bulgaria do we want?
Let's draw the line: if the protests shift the political layers and limit the influence of the Borisov-Peevski tandem, the decisive battle will be between the advocates for the development of Bulgaria as a Western European country in the face of PP-DB and the possible (already sociologically measurable) Eurosceptic party "under the fist" of Radev. In such a situation, GERB-SDF will play the role of a balancer, and MRF will shrink to its ethnic vote, insofar as it has not transformed into a civil one, as evidence already exists. "Vazrazhdane" will be "bloodied" from Radev's party.
*** This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State Gazette as a whole.