Anxiety is rising in Iran. After the unprecedented US military intervention in Venezuela and the arrest of Nicolas Maduro, the country's leadership fears that the same fate may follow him. The regime feels threatened.
Iran was one of the closest allies of the kidnapped Venezuelan President Maduro, who remained in power in Caracas after massive electoral manipulation in 2024. That is why the EU or the US did not recognize him as a legitimate head of state.
By kidnapping Maduro, Trump demonstrated that he is capable of overthrowing foreign regimes by military force, without UN approval and without respecting international law. And this is a clear signal to other authoritarian states.
A common enemy unites them
The relations between Iran and Venezuela can hardly be explained by the classic criteria of foreign policy. The differences between them are significant. Venezuela is located in the Caribbean Sea and is a predominantly Catholic country, while Iran is located in the Persian Gulf and is a Muslim country. Bilateral trade is limited, and there is not a single direct flight between the two capitals.
What unites them is their common enemy - the US. The way in which the two countries deal with international sanctions and survive in a world dominated by Washington also brings them closer. Over the past three decades, this relationship, based on political sympathy and anti-American rhetoric, has developed into a complex network of oil, financial, industrial and defense cooperation. According to Iranian authorities, these relations remain unchanged - Tehran maintains contacts with the regime in Caracas.
Iran is worried about US interference
What is happening in Venezuela comes at a critical moment for Iran. Protests have been going on across the country for more than a week. Demonstrators are demanding social, economic and political change. The regime in Tehran is under extreme pressure. At the same time, the US president has not spared threats towards Iran.
“If the Iranian government starts killing people, as it has done in the past, then I think they will be punished very severely by the United States. We are monitoring the situation very closely“, Trump said.
It is not clear exactly what Washington intends to do. In June 2025, however, the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities jointly with Israel.
"The reactions I hear from Iran are contradictory", says Bundestag Vice President Omid Nouripour, who was born in Tehran and emigrated to Germany with his family at the age of 12. "Many there want regime change. But the interventions of recent years, and now in Venezuela, show that Trump has no plan for what comes next. That is why I am very cautious."
The message is understood in Tehran
"The message to Iran is clear," says Damon Gollritz, an international policy analyst at the Institute for Geopolitics in The Hague. Tehran already knows that its political leadership could become a military target for the US. After the intervention in Caracas, Gollritz also sees a change in Trump's course. In the summer of 2025, the US president was still hesitant about Israel's plans to eliminate Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other military leaders.
Tehran is also not holding back in the controversy. "The US must be careful with its military," wrote Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. About 45,000 US troops are stationed in the Middle East.
The overthrow of Maduro also has an impact on Iran's military apparatus, according to expert Gollritz. There is already a search for a potential replacement for the ayatollah. Unlike in Venezuela, there is no serious opposition to the regime in Iran. The US attack on Caracas also had a psychological effect on Iran, according to Iranian journalist Reza Talebi, who lives in Turkey. Now, the leadership in Tehran faces an important question: “If the US could pull off such a coup in Latin America, why can’t it do it elsewhere?”
What happened in Venezuela could also seriously change Iran's strategic plans regarding the US and Israel. Just a few days ago, Israeli authorities sharply criticized Iran, with Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid even directly calling on Tehran to carefully monitor what is happening in Caracas. However, the escalation of threats also creates an opportunity for the government in Tehran to suppress the protests even more decisively. And the hope for military intervention by the US or some "savior from outside" could weaken the motivation of protesters in Iranian society. "The assumption that the pressure that Trump is putting on the regime in Tehran is mostly in support of Iranian citizens is naive and superficial," Talebi believes.