Ali Khamenei has lost his authority, and after the war with Israel in the summer of 2025, the regime in Tehran is dying, political scientist Ali Fathollah-Nejad tells ARD. Will the mullahs lose their power?
Ali Fathollah-Nejad was born in Tabriz, Iran, but works as a political scientist at the University of Bonn, Germany. ARD's Jan Starkebaum spoke to him about the protests in Iran and the future of the Islamic Republic:
ARD: Do these protests really have the potential to shake the regime?
Ali Fathollah-Nejad: These protests are the most dangerous for the regime so far because they have a much larger social base. The protests started with merchants who were previously considered loyal to the regime. But as a result of the severe economic crisis, more and more people are becoming poorer. The dissatisfaction is very great, people have already lost all faith that the authorities can improve anything in this hopeless situation. This is also the reason why we see so many people on the streets of Iran. But whether there will be any changes, of course, depends on whether the protests will cause upheavals in the authorities and in the repressive apparatus.
Iran could be a very rich country if there were no corruption
ARD: So, poverty and the economic difficulties of the people are the main reasons for these protests. However, Iran could be among the richest countries in the world. What is wrong with oil and gas revenues?
Fatollah-Nejad: Absolutely right - on paper, Iran should be one of the richest countries in the world. If we take into account the total oil and gas resources, Iran is in second place in the world. But we know from international indices that the Iranian state is one of the most corrupt in the world. It is an oligarchic state, a clerical-military oligarchy that monopolizes political and economic power. One of the reasons for the protests was the plans for the next state budget, with which the state tried to reach even deeper into the already empty pockets of its citizens. The money is there, but it only reaches a limited circle of people.
ARD: At the moment, the situation on the streets seems to be calming down. Are the regime's violent actions against its critics having any effect?
Fatollah-Nejad: It is still impossible to say. Since January 8, i.e. since the end of last week, the protests have changed qualitatively. We are seeing much larger demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands, if not more, in all provinces of the country, as well as in all major cities. In the meantime, the regime has blocked access to the internet, mobile and landline telephone networks, and we can fear that major massacres will follow. The number of victims is probably much higher than what is currently being reported. I assume that the dead are measured in thousands.
"The Supreme Leader has lost his authority"
ARD: Are the protests not an indication that the regime may have a certain "shelf life" that is expiring?
Fatollah-Nejad: Even before these protests, some representatives of the regime in Tehran were expecting major changes. This is also due to the fact that the Supreme Leader of Iran is very old and has lost his authority.
Since the war with Israel (in June 2025 - editor's note) this is a regime that is truly dying, that is bankrupt - ideologically, politically, and now also economically. And there are reasons to believe that even if this rebellion is suppressed, the state will not be able to pay its repressive apparatus in the future.
ARD: It is interesting that in the field of foreign policy Iran is taking a softer tone and even seems ready for negotiations with the US. How do you assess this?
Fatollah-Nejad: Such maneuvering was, of course, predictable. In this hopeless situation, the regime is trying to get out of the noose. It is once again offering negotiations on the nuclear program, which it has categorically rejected so far. I think this is just a deception maneuver that the West should not fall for. The regime is trying to buy time, reduce external pressure, in order to maintain its power inside the country and continue the repression.