The events of October 5, 2000 remain the biggest political trauma for Aleksandar Vucic. Then the Serbs forced the autocrat Slobodan Milosevic to accept his election defeat. At that time, Vucic was his Minister of Information and was primarily responsible for one thing - censorship.
The democratic changes in Serbia then remain a trauma for Vucic. Especially today, when he could find himself in the same situation as Milosevic. Vučić recently resigned as president to enter the race for the October 25 vote as the leading candidate of his Serbian Progressive Party.
"Two paths for Serbia - liberation or dictatorship"
"These elections are a referendum", political scientist Dušan Milenković told DV. "There are only two paths for Serbia - either liberation from the autocratic rule of Aleksandar Vučić, or decades of repression and dictatorship."
The biggest challenge for Vučić is not the democratic opposition, but the students. After the large-scale protests against corruption and abuse of power that began in late 2024, they have now released their own list. It includes respected professors, activists and celebrities. The fragmented opposition for many years could not create any difficulties for Vucic and his government. Now, however, the students' strategy is clearly working - according to a recent survey, they will receive 44.4% of the votes in the elections, and Vucic's camp - 41.7%. Most opposition parties have refused to participate and supported the protest movement.
However, other surveys by agencies close to the government give a convincing victory to Vucic. In Serbia, where trust in institutions and the media has collapsed to a record low, trust in sociology is also low.
The student list united those dissatisfied with the government and the opposition
Former Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic also defines the upcoming elections as a referendum. In 2000, Zivkovic was part of the victors against Milosevic, and in 2003 he took over from Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic after he was assassinated. "Back then, there was a real and well-organized opposition," Zivkovic told DW. "Unfortunately, today the opposition in Serbia looks like dinosaurs - either they are gone or they have sold out to the regime. In any case, they are not contributing to Serbia becoming a country of honesty and law again."
Dissatisfaction with the opposition has directed support to the student movement. Vucic, who is trying to navigate the country between the European Union (EU), Russia and China, is accused of imposing control over the media, selling off natural resources and having ties to organized crime.
The wave of protests has long surpassed the one in 2000. Then the citizens protested for two weeks, and Milosevic admitted defeat after the army and parts of the police refused to obey him. His power apparatus collapsed.
Today, however, Serbia is a different country. Back then, the country was hit by the collapse of Yugoslavia, crime, sanctions, galloping inflation and bombing by NATO forces during the Kosovo conflict. After October 5, Serbia and Montenegro, which were still one country, were readmitted to the UN. Salaries and pensions began to be paid, and a large part of foreign debts were forgiven.
“Vučić has always sought to deny all these achievements”, says Dušan Milenković. Today, however, he returns to Milošević's rhetoric - his critics are “foreign fighters”, “terrorists” and “fascists”. According to Vučić, the protests against his government are a “color revolution” organized by the West. Almost all television stations copy these statements.
What will be Vučić's fate if he loses?
The students are distancing themselves from the traditional dilemmas for Serbian voters between the European Union and “Orthodox” Russia. Their lists include liberals, nationalists, leftists and rightists, and the main topics are the fight against crime and the rule of law. “They must be ready now and know what they will do the day after taking power, seven days later, a month later. Within a year, all reforms must be implemented. "Then there should be truly democratic elections, where everyone can present their own program," advises former Prime Minister Živković.
Especially important is "lustration" - the exclusion from politics of all those who have violated human rights in the past. "Those who are in power today should not even have the right to run for the board of directors of their housing cooperative," Živković believes.
The students are campaigning on social media and door-to-door. And how do they see Vucic's fate if he wins? One video reveals this: in it Vucic stands alone, and in the next shot a man is mopping the floor of a prison.
But the road to get there is long. The opposition fears election manipulation, even violence, which protesters have also been victims of during the demonstrations. Jovo Bakic, a sociology professor in Belgrade and part of the candidates on the student list, says he is convinced of victory. And also that Vucic will not admit defeat - just like Milosevic once did. But the students have a plan even if things turn out this way, Bakic told the magazine “Vreme”. What - I cannot reveal."
The opposition is preparing for the hours after the elections - the counting of votes and the reporting of the results. One thing is certain - Serbia will experience the most unpredictable elections since 2000.
Source: www.dw.com