DV: Both the Minister of Defense and experts stated that it is obvious that this is a deliberate attack and there is no way that what happened in the Bulgarian exclusive economic zone could be an accident. What is this a sign of?
Rumena Filipova: In my opinion, this is a sign of gradation in attacks against Bulgaria, as we see an escalation - from provocations, for example, from downed drones, to much more serious attacks in Bulgarian maritime territory. It has already been established that Bulgaria is a weak link in relation to the malicious influence of Russia and China. This is because there is no serious institutional response to any hybrid attacks and the appropriate measures are not taken and incidents are generally downplayed. It is not clearly named who the perpetrator is, although internationally our partners from the European Union and NATO have already given us enough warnings about what aggressive measures Russia may take against Europe. There is also enough evidence from other countries. So Bulgaria is really becoming increasingly vulnerable to foreign malicious influence and, unfortunately, an easier target for such attacks.
DV: According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, Kiev has clarified with Bulgaria that this is a Russian attack. However, Sofia says that there is no evidence at the moment and has not commented on its talks with the Ukrainian side. Why do you think so?
In my opinion, here we cannot just talk about the fact that there is almost a dual strategy: one is being spoken about to European partners and Ukraine, and the other - about internal consumption. Because, of course, the rhetoric about internal consumption is also taken into account, heard and understood by our external partners. I think that there is no big division between the domestic and international media environment anymore. The messages are connected anyway and can be read and seen by everyone, not just the Bulgarian public, by the Bulgarian media. So I think that there is even a more serious issue here - that of Bulgaria's geopolitical orientation: clear signals are being given that the country is rather not supporting Ukraine in Russia's war against it, and that there has never been a serious mention of the threat from Russia. Rather, the narrative is that peace is being talked about, but it is not said under what conditions and with what consequences for Ukrainian and European security. And in fact, we are increasingly hearing that the authorities are receiving praise from Russian state institutions for Bulgaria's behavior in international relations. So I rather think that again it is not simply a matter of messages for internal and external use, but a serious issue of Bulgaria's geopolitical orientation.
DV: There is a lot of talk about threats against the Baltic Sea, but now the situation in the Black Sea is also becoming more and more tense. How will this affect NATO's actions in the region?
This is an extremely important question. Regarding security in the Baltic Sea, we can say that there are many more initiatives for cooperation and also capacity - both between the Baltic states themselves and with the Scandinavian countries. The situation in the Black Sea is radically different, since the only countries that are members of the European Union and border the Black Sea coast are Bulgaria and Romania. Of course, Turkey is part of NATO, but we do not have a unified security system in the Black Sea and the main threat factor is from Russia. But the problem is that the countries that are members of the European Union and NATO do not always act in unison. There has been talk for a long time that military capacity should be built in the Black Sea, but this is difficult to do, as cooperation initiatives between Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey focus more on, for example, mine clearance than on building joint forces in the fleet.
We should also talk about the Montreux Convention, as there are certain restrictions on the entry of warships and, accordingly, NATO cannot provide all its naval forces and support Bulgaria and Romania, so we have to rely more on the capacity of these two countries, and Bulgaria is rather emerging as a weak link again.
DV: Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have strengthened their activities in the Black Sea Mine Countermeasures Naval Group after the NATO summit this summer in Ankara. What will be the role of this pact in the future in view of the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea?
It is, of course, important and has its functions for a very specific area - mine clearance. But I think there are also more serious issues and gaps in the defense capacity in the naval plan, because much more serious reserves and forces should be built in terms of warships. The modernization of the naval forces in Bulgaria must be improved in addition to the air defense, for which measures have been taken in recent years. Again, there must be much more coordination, especially with Romania, which is the country with the closest relations with Bulgaria within the EU and NATO. But in general, for more than a decade now, the Bulgarian authorities and institutions have been downplaying or not supporting the idea of building a common naval defense force and coordination. This continues to this day.
DV: Do you see any difference in the way Romania reacted to what happened two days earlier in its exclusive economic zone and the way Bulgaria reacted? And do our partners in NATO and the European Union take into account the difference in the attitude of one and the other country?
They certainly take into account, because in general, Bulgaria's responses, which are extremely timid and without mentioning the clear Russian threat not only to Bulgaria but to the whole of Europe, make a serious impression. The lack of any real measures, both in terms of strengthening military capacity and in terms of combating hybrid threats, which of course includes disinformation and cyber threats, is also striking. So the contrast between Bulgaria and Romania is clear. For Bucharest, there is a clear formulation of the threat, namely that it comes from Russia. Over the years, we must note that Romania has modernized its military capabilities to a much greater extent, so it has an even greater capacity to respond quickly and alone to such provocations from Russia. While in Bulgaria there are still debates even about what weapons should be used and about the fact that the old weapons, for example the MiG-29, continue to be maintained, and the new ones need to be adopted much faster. So the problem is that the institutional response is so weak not only for the specific security of Bulgaria, but also for the fact that there are growing doubts about how much Bulgaria contributes to NATO, how much there are even similar views on what is happening.