The agreement between the US and Russia on the supply of Russian diesel and the subsequent very sharp reaction of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who accused Washington of weakness, renewed the discussion about the reliability of American support for Kiev. In response to Zelensky's criticism, US President Donald Trump called on Ukrainians to change the state leadership. At the same time, information leaked that the US could stop providing Ukraine with intelligence data and weapons. Zelensky himself warned about this on Wednesday.
Lack of intelligence data limits Starlink
Only a few days passed and reports began to come from Kiev indicating that the US was at least partially carrying out its threats. The Air Force reported that for two days in a row they had not received “information from their partners about ballistic missiles launched by Russia“.
At the same time, Sergei Beskrestnov, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, reported that the American company SpaceX had introduced speed restrictions on the Starlink terminals. These terminals provide constant Internet access to Ukrainian drones when carrying out strikes on targets in Russia. “Our defense forces did not receive warnings about these restrictions, and this led to the failure of a number of missions“, Beskrestnov wrote in Telegram.
Whether the lack of information from Western partners about the missile launches is a coincidence is unknown. There have been similar cases in the past. The US denies having stopped providing information to Kiev, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibikha has denied reports of ending intelligence cooperation with the US.
Dependence on the US remains serious
Regardless of what has happened in recent days, the discussion shows how vital cooperation with the US remains for Ukraine, Nikolai Beleskov, chief consultant at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, told DW. “Since 2022, our dependence has decreased, but it remains very serious in a number of areas.“
The American Patriot air defense system is key to protecting Ukraine from Russian ballistic missiles. Photo: Axel Heimken/dpa/picture alliance
According to the expert, thanks to the partners, the Ukrainian military receives information about launched missiles or drones even before they reach Ukrainian airspace. American data on Ukrainian strikes inside Russia is no less important, Beleskov added. This is what allows the Ukrainian defense forces to understand the current situation with air defense in Russia, which areas are better to bypass and how to plan the route.
German military expert Professor Carlo Massala shares the opinion that the consequences of the US refusal to provide intelligence data to Ukraine would be “dramatic“. At the same time, he is convinced that the data of Kiev's European partners could partially compensate for these losses. “There are currently alternative options, mainly French, for providing Ukraine with target coordinates“, the expert told DW. According to him, this data is already being used by the Ukrainian military for strikes using French weapons.
Isn't most Western intelligence data from the US?
Retired American general Ben Hodges is even more optimistic about the potential of European intelligence. “Most of the intelligence data that we use in the US is provided by allies anyway. That is, France, Germany, Great Britain, Poland - all can provide assistance with intelligence data for early warning of missile launches“, he told DW and added: “In fact, it is a matter of political will“.
But in addition to intelligence data, the US also provides Ukraine with weapons. After Donald Trump returned to power in 2025, Washington stopped paying for military aid to Kiev, but provided it through the PURL program created for this purpose. The costs are borne by the US partners in NATO. The decisive element of the American supplies for Ukraine are interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense systems. They are considered the most effective in reflecting the ballistic missiles used by Russia.
Antenna for the Starlink satellite internet installed on a freight train in Ukraine. Photo: Christoph Soeder/dpa/picture alliance
Restrictions on the supply of American weapons
Since the beginning of the war between Israel and the US against Iran, Ukraine has received almost no American interceptor missiles, Carlo Massala reminds. Therefore, if the US refuses to provide weapons under the PURL program, the consequences for Kiev at the moment will not be particularly great, the expert is convinced.
Nikolai Beleskov is not so optimistic. He recalls that the supply of weapons from the US to Ukraine is not limited to the “Patriot“, but also includes ammunition for other systems - NASAMS, “air-to-air“ missiles, AIM-120, AIM-9, which Europe buys and provides to Ukraine. And if they are from European stocks, the consent of the US as a manufacturer is still required, the expert notes.
The critical dependence on Starlink
Beleskov adds Starlink to the list. This satellite internet access system is a private business of American billionaire Elon Musk, a close confidant of Trump and the largest private donor to the Republican Party in the US midterm election campaign, according to media reports.
It has become abundantly clear more than once how important Starlink is for Ukrainian strikes on targets in Russia during the war. “In our opinion, it is extremely stupid to allow one person to have such a huge influence that affects US foreign policy“, criticizes this circumstance Ben Hodges. He does not rule out the possibility that Musk will exclude Ukraine from Starlink on Trump's instructions.
“If he does, it will be terrible”, says the retired general. He is convinced that Kiev's European partners are able to create their own alternative to the American satellite system. "Let's stop talking about it and start working on it," Hodges recommends.
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Source: www.dw.com