Warnings of a Russian threat, also directed against Germany, are becoming more frequent. The head of German intelligence, Sinan Selen, said that Russia's sabotage and destabilizing actions against Germany and other European countries "are not a temporary phenomenon, but a long-term planned hybrid attack."
According to Selen, the Russian threat will not disappear with the end of the war in Ukraine. "For Russia, it is about completely redrawing the map of Europe and its own role in Europe and in world politics. We will continue to witness aggression from Russia not only in Ukraine, but also in the Baltic states, in Poland and above all in Germany."
Russia is still tied to Ukraine
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrinth described the situation as follows: "Our country is not at war, but we are the target of hybrid attacks every day". Russia has not set itself the goal of defeating Germany militarily, but "to subjugate us politically and socially", Dobrinth added.
However, security experts are not so sure that Russia is really only striving for political and social influence. Last year, political scientist Carlo Massala told ARD: "Russia is preparing for a big war". He did not mean only cyberwar. General Carsten Breuer, the Bundeswehr's top military officer, agrees with this assessment.
Russia is still heavily involved in Ukraine. According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, there is currently no immediate military threat to NATO territory. But according to the unanimous assessments of military experts, European intelligence agencies and the Federal Ministry of Defense, by 2029 at the latest, Russia will have the necessary human and material resources to wage a conventional war against NATO. The Russian military-industrial complex is operating at full capacity. And Moscow plans to increase the size of its armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers.
This is something else, says political scientist Stefan Meister. "I think Russia has no interest in a direct military conflict with NATO right now," he told DW.
Military confrontation by accident?
Example: the failed attack with a drone loaded with explosives on Ukrainian transport planes at Leipzig-Halle airport in August. Why was Germany specifically targeted? "I think Germany has always been a major target of Russian influence and hybrid warfare. Russia believes that Germany is the key to European solutions. Germany is currently leading the way in supporting Ukraine," says security expert Nico Lange. After Berlin officially accused Moscow, an angry denial followed. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that this was "the beginning of a real war". However, there was no further escalation.
However, there is always the risk that things will get out of hand after a Russian provocation and the corresponding countermeasures, notes Stefan Meister. "You shoot down a plane by mistake that you want to repel, and that leads to a response. But I don't think that Russia is currently aiming for direct war - rather for provocations, division and undermining the confidence of the population."
AfD: Without support for Ukraine, there will be more money for Germany
Not everyone shares the view that Germany is threatened by Russia - or that this threat can be repelled. Politicians, mainly from the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) as well as the "Union for Social Justice and Economic Reason" (SSV), want to improve relations with Russia despite the war in Ukraine, resume Russian energy supplies and end support for Kiev. "People are fed up with this escalation, including towards Russia, and the billions that are being wasted there," said AfD co-chair Tino Krupala. The message resonated - AfD recorded an increase in all three votes for local parliaments.
However, CDU security expert Roderich Kiesewetter refuted the AfD and SSV's claim to DW that ending aid to Ukraine would mean more security and more funds for German social policy. "Spending on education, social policy and infrastructure is only possible if we live in freedom and democracy and, above all, in security. Anyone who believes that we will have more funds for social needs if we stop supporting Ukraine and let Russia act as it pleases is either gravely mistaken or is becoming a tool of Russian propaganda."
Decades of Pacifism
Based on the threat analysis, the Bundeswehr is currently undergoing a major modernization, for which significant funds are being allocated. But it is having difficulty finding enough recruits for the planned increase in personnel. Students are protesting against compulsory military service - just as they have recently demonstrated for more effective climate protection. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was criticized even by his own party members when he said that Germany should be "ready for war". Many people found this too aggressive.
Is Germany prepared for a military threat? Stefan Meister thinks not. "For decades we have been raised to be pacifists and have lived in a comfort zone - we are not mentally prepared for war."
Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and the CDU are under increasing political pressure, especially from the right, to reduce support for Ukraine. But Merz never tires of emphasizing that Ukraine will continue to receive support during his term as chancellor. However, this also means that the threat from Russia will continue and even intensify, points out Stefan Meister. "I think we will see attacks on infrastructure and perhaps also on specific individuals from the military-industrial complex. I think that this is the real, concrete danger for Germany in the coming months."
Author: Christoph Hasselbach