North Korea said it tested two types of submarine-launched cruise missiles off the country's east coast on October 14. The test came just a day after state news agency KCNA reported that Kim Jong-un had visited a new defense industry museum, where he viewed an intercontinental ballistic missile said to be capable of hitting targets in the United States.
The visit comes on the heels of the test-firing of South Korea's first hypersonic missile, an event attended by South Korean President Lee Jae-myeon in early October. However, Pyongyang was the first to announce that it had tested a medium-range hypersonic missile that traveled 350 km before hitting its target.
“Comrade Kim Jong-un expressed his belief that all the nation's missile forces will remain faithful to their mission of defending the sovereignty and security of the republic,“ the North Korean news agency reported.
"Modern conventional weapons"
Both North Korea and South Korea are competing primarily in developing hypersonic technology, as it offers the potential to enhance their offensive capabilities at a time of rising tension in the Indo-Pacific region.
Hypersonic missiles are weapons that can travel at speeds at least five times faster than the speed of sound, or over 6,100 km/h. This makes them very difficult for defense forces to track and intercept. The missiles can carry conventional or nuclear warheads, and one of their advantages over previous generations of missiles is their ability to suddenly change course.
“There has been an arms race on the Korean Peninsula for many years, and hypersonic weapons are just the latest manifestation of that”, Christopher Green, senior advisor on Korean Peninsula issues at the International Crisis Group, told DW. Hypersonic weapons have become a “priority for South Korea” as North Korea has increased its military capabilities and established military and economic ties with Russia, he noted.
“North Korea has nuclear weapons, but using them would not be advisable,” Green said, “because the danger is that if they do, the United States will turn the country into dust.”
“It is therefore not surprising that the geopolitical situation in the region is encouraging North Korea to develop advanced conventional weapons in an attempt to establish dominance on the peninsula,” the analyst said.
Is the threat from North Korea being underestimated?
While it is impossible to confirm whether the capabilities of the weapons developed by North Korea are actually as Pyongyang describes, Green said it would be a mistake to assume that the country underestimated.
“We don’t know what their capabilities are, and it’s possible that this is all propaganda, but there’s a long list of cases where North Korea’s capabilities were underestimated before it was proven that they could actually do what they said,” the expert explained.
Chun In-bum, a retired general in the South Korean army who is now a research fellow at the National Institute for Deterrence Research, agreed: “No one knows for sure if they’re telling the truth about this, but any cautious military strategist should always assume the worst,” he said.
However, it remains unclear how North Korea acquired the technology needed to operate hypersonic missiles. “They probably acquired the technology illegally,” Chun said. "They spy on companies in the United States, South Korea and Japan for this kind of information, but they do the same even on their "friends," the expert added.
"Greater offensive power increases the danger that North Korea poses, and if it has weapons that are harder to intercept, it may be tempted to use them," Chun said. "Of course, these are just my guesses, but I'm sure we are looking at ways to neutralize this very threat," Chun added, adding that "there is no suitable solution for now."
The balance of power remains unchanged
According to Christopher Green, the systems developed by both sides could neutralize each other on the battlefield. “I don't think it changes the balance of power,” Green said. “The North still has its nuclear deterrent and the so-called “hedgehog strategy” - to be sharp and prickly to keep everyone else at bay,” he added. “It doesn't change the situation south of the DMZ,” Green added.
“It is clear, however, that if North Korea continues to develop its offensive systems and manages to deploy them in large numbers, it will become imperative to discuss strengthening missile defenses – not just in South Korea but also in Japan,” he said, adding that it would “raise some very difficult questions” about the security of the region.
Author: Julian Ryall