Low voter turnout was expected, but it turned out to be catastrophically low. What is the reason for this reluctance of the vast majority of voters to vote? To whom and what are they saying with this behavior?
Johanna Daimel: Yes, the low voter turnout should worry us. The contrast between the high degree of voter mobilization in Serbia, where elections were also held yesterday, and the barely noticeable flow of voters at the polling stations in Bulgaria is striking. In Serbia, we saw an impressive protest vote. While in Bulgaria - where the last parliamentary elections were held only in April - many did not bother to go to the polls for the presidential elections. To put it more bluntly: Serbia is experiencing a powerful push towards democratization, while Bulgaria is showing signs of voter fatigue and - perhaps - reconciliation. This is not good at all.
Two more observations can be made from this: First, the pre-election forecasts invariably pointed to the need for a run-off between Yotova and Gyurov. Many voters probably decided that they could simply skip the first round. This probably also applies to those who until recently had not decided whether to vote at all, and if they did, for whom. It is striking that the supporters of GERB and MRF did not have their own candidates; it seems that a large part of them also preferred not to go to the polls.
Both Yotova and Gyurov must make efforts to mobilize voters
We will see in the run-off whether voter turnout will increase. Both Yotova and Gyurov, however, will have to make significant efforts to mobilize voters and convince them of their visions of where they intend to take Bulgaria.
After the low voter turnout, the second news from the first round is the surprisingly weaker than predicted result of Yotova-Vulchev. And since we are talking about the presidential candidate pair supported by “Progressive Bulgaria“, do you see in this result a first assessment of the voters for Radev's governance?
Johanna Daimel: Several factors contributed to Iliana Yotova receiving significantly fewer votes than expected. First of all, this is the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea and the region. This is a very real threat - a context in which Yotova's populist call to preserve the Cyrillic alphabet made no sense, to put it mildly. Yotova's position, which fully follows Rumen Radev's narrative, avoiding defining Russia as an aggressor and instead calling for a "coalition for peace", contrasts sharply with Andrey Gyurov's clear pro-European position. Gyurov advocates a unified foreign and security policy that identifies Russia as an aggressor, supports Ukraine, and guarantees Bulgaria's defense within NATO. It is noteworthy that in recent days Gyurov has managed to gain a significant surge in votes and now remains only a few percentage points behind Yotova.
First warning signal to "Progressive Bulgaria"
The pardoning of drug dealers during Yotova's term as vice president, as well as the recent murders - most notably that of Slavi Binev, who had maintained contacts with both her and Radev - probably also contributed to the lower-than-expected election result. However, I believe it is too early to declare the end of Radev's rule. Although his approval rating has been falling since he came to power, his positions remain quite stable. But this is still the first warning signal to "Progressive Bulgaria"; surveys also indicate a decline in public trust in this government, which came to power with big promises - for example, to dismantle the oligarchy, but where success so far has been extremely modest.
In any case, I believe that both Yotova and Gyurov should use the next few days before the second round to devote themselves not only to the geopolitical issues, which are so important, but also to the economic and social problems of the country. And there is an urgent need for action. And it is precisely there, in my opinion, that Gyurov would have a good chance of presenting himself as a defender of the interests of citizens thanks to his political and professional experience in the financial sphere.
„Vazrazhdane“ almost tripled its result from the last parliamentary elections in April and it is possible that the final outcome will depend to a large extent on the behavior of Kostadinov's voters. On election night, Yotova said that she did not want foreign flags to be flown in Bulgarian cities. Is this a handshake with “Vazrazhdane“ on Yotova's part?
If Yotova does not want foreign flags, this should also apply to Russian ones
Johanna Daimel: The election result of “Vazrazhdane“ is certainly worrying. On the other hand, I think that in the person of Kostadinov, the party's supporters found a candidate they could support, and that is why they went out to vote. In my opinion, the low voter turnout contributed to the result achieved by “Vazrazhdane“. Kostadinov is openly pro-Russian and set a clear direction for this part of the electorate; he is in favor of leaving the EU and NATO, as well as for rapprochement with Moscow. If Yotova does not want to see foreign flags in Bulgarian cities, this should also apply to Russian ones, but she did not say anything specific on this issue. It is possible that Yotova will attract voters from other pro-Russian parties in the second round. We will see what populist pro-Russian idea she will launch in the coming days before the runoff.
GERB practically boycotted the first round, and Boyko Borisov stated that if anyone expects support from him in the second round, they should ask for it. In line with Euro-Atlantic values, Gyurov can do this. However, should he ask for support from GERB and does this pose any risks for him?
Johanna Daimel: GERB's decision not to nominate its own candidate was truly a historic moment. Naturally, this created a vacuum for the party's supporters and voters - although Boyko Borisov justified the decision with the argument that he did not want to nominate a counter-candidate against the pro-European forces, as this could split the votes and prove beneficial to Yotova. However, I have not heard Borisov call for support for Gyurov in the runoff.
Is Gyurov an acceptable candidate for GERB?
This raises the question of whether Andrey Gyurov is an acceptable choice for GERB voters? This can certainly be difficult given the fact that as acting prime minister he positions himself against GERB and against the concentration of power. And yet - as initial sociological analyses of yesterday's vote indicate - it seems that more GERB voters preferred Gyurov to Yotova.
The presidential institution is an important political institution in Bulgaria; in its essence it affects the fundamental orientation of the country. With a pro-Russian president like Yotova and a pro-Russian prime minister, Bulgaria risks moving away from its foreign policy and security policy, coordinated with the EU and NATO, and may fall into an ambiguous state, characterized by even stronger Russian influence on politics, the economy and society. This cannot be in the interest of the pro-European forces, and I include GERB among them. Therefore, I believe that the struggle for supremacy between the reformist pro-Western forces and the pro-Russian factions will be decisive. And I hope that Gyurov will succeed in convincing GERB voters here as well.
According to Prime Minister Radev, next Sunday the choice will be “between peace and war”. What is the choice that Bulgarians face in these elections, and how can more of them be convinced to go out and vote in the run-off?
"A favorable attitude towards the Kremlin will not help"
Johanna Daimel: Anyone who wants lasting peace in Europe must support Ukraine and oppose Russia's brutal, destructive and imperialist great-power fantasies. A favorable attitude towards the Kremlin will not help, but the protection of NATO and the existence of a united Europe.
Before the run-off, there needs to be numerous public debates between the remaining candidates that can mobilize more people. As far as I know, Andrei Gyurov has been actively communicating on social networks - an approach that has certainly appealed to younger voters in particular. However, this is not enough. That is why I believe that the candidates should tour cities and municipalities in the country and communicate with people in person. Unfortunately, the time until November 1 is too short. These are extremely important elections that affect the basic orientation of Bulgaria at a time of very serious threats – and this should serve as a strong motive.
Dr. Johanna Daimel is a political scientist and expert on Southeast European affairs, who has long followed the development of Bulgaria. She is also the vice-chair of the Southeast Europe Society. The questions were posed to her by Emilian Lilov.
Source: www.dw.com