For months, Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted the normal functioning of Moscow airports. Independent Russian media reported that in October, the normal operation of the airports in Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky and Vnukovo was interrupted almost daily - on some days the airports were closed for 9 hours a day.
As early as early September, Ukrainian President Zelensky warned that Ukrainian drone counterattacks would effectively close Russian airspace.
Can Ukraine block Russian airports?
The so-called "carpet" plan of the Russian Aviation Service “Rosaviatsia” is a special plan for emergency security measures in the event of an emergency. It provides for the immediate closure of the airspace over a certain Russian region or airports. After the plan is activated, drastic restrictions on all air traffic come into force. This happens if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the air.
“In the presence of a military threat, a certain segment of the airspace is closed and the “Kilim” plan comes into effect. Aviation expert Oleksandr Lanetsky explains that every drone actually represents a military threat and recalls that the Islamist Houthis in Yemen managed to block air traffic in Saudi Arabia. "I think that Ukraine's military capabilities far exceed those of the Houthis," he claims, suggesting that if the war escalates further, the Ukrainians will have no problem massively violating Russian airspace, or even blocking it.
Independent expert Yan Matveev shares this view. "In order to block the airspace and implement the 'Kilim' plan, only a few ordinary drones are needed, which do not need to carry explosives or have a long range," he says, recalling that Ukrainian industry produces dozens or even hundreds of long-range drones every day. Therefore, according to him, Ukraine has the necessary resources to paralyze airports in Russia.
On October 15, Simon Schuster wrote in the American magazine “The Atlantic”, citing informed sources, that Ukrainian operations to block Russian airspace “are just beginning”.
Can Russia repel the danger?
Military analyst Matveev believes that Russian air defense (ADF) is not fully able to stop the incursions of Ukrainian drones in the Moscow region. "If they could have shot them down, they would have done so by now, and the Russian armed forces would have put additional reserves into action to protect the airspace long ago," he says.
Expert Lanetsky, in turn, does not rule out the possibility that Russia could lower the danger threshold at which the "carpet" plan comes into effect. However, this would bring additional dangers, in addition, the risk of a plane crash, like the one in December 2024 with the Azerbaijani AZAL plane. It was mistakenly hit by a Russian air defense missile fired at drones, would increase.
What are the risks for aviation?
Yan Matveev also points out the risk of air defense targeting a civilian aircraft instead of a military target. He notes that essentially nothing has changed in the Russian air defense system since the downing of the AZAL plane at the end of 2024.
When dealing with a drone flying at low altitude, the target is located visually and fired at with automatic weapons. The danger to aircraft is very small, unless they accidentally fly in close proximity.
Therefore, the use of air defense missiles increases the risk to civil aviation, because the missile can have defects that are almost inevitable in mass-produced ones, and it can be redirected to a passenger plane flying nearby. Matveev draws attention to the world practice of taking additional security measures in case of dangers in the airspace, such as those that occur, for example, when the "Kilim" plan is activated, because air defense is then unable to guarantee the safety of passenger aircraft.
And for a serious incident, the drone does not even need to be carrying an explosive. Its collision with an aircraft is enough, which would lead to serious consequences, because Ukraine's long-range drones that reach Moscow are quite large and can weigh several dozen kilograms.
In the summer of 2023, Ukrainian forces attacked an airport in the Russian city of Pskov, where both military and civilian aircraft are based. In mid-October of this year, debris from a drone fell on the territory of Sochi airport, on the Black Sea coast. Russian forces, in turn, are also targeting Ukrainian airports; in early September, Zelensky confirmed attacks on the airports of “Kiev“ and “Borispol“ near the capital.
Risks for foreign airlines?
Expert Lanetsky says that there are three factors that determine whether foreign airlines will suspend flights to Russia: the presence of a real military threat, demand for flights, and insurance costs.
Problems may arise with insurance. According to Lanetsky, companies could assess the risks as so high that they would significantly increase their insurance rates for flights to Russia. This would in turn sharply increase ticket prices. Competition on the Russian market has already decreased, as many airlines no longer exist. This increases the demand for airline tickets from the remaining foreign airlines. “Whether they will stay or not depends on the price they will have to pay for the real dangers,” the expert says.
Source: www.dw.com