Author Dimitar Sabev, "Klimateka"
The European Union's energy transition will lead to depopulation of Bulgarian coal regions – advocates of fossil energy are alarming. The data do not support such a conclusion. Moreover, with the right policy, the energy transition may be an opportunity to limit the demographic collapse in coal-affected municipalities.
Shockingly high mortality
There are three coal regions in Bulgaria: the largest “Maritsa-Iztok“ near Stara Zagora, the oldest – Pernishki and Kyustendilski – with Bobov Dol. Over ten municipalities are affected, but only in three of them coal is a mono-industry: Radnevo and Galabovo in “Maritsa-East“, as well as Bobov Dol 45 km as the crow flies from Sofia.
The geographical and socio-economic conditions in the three actual coal municipalities are different, but they share a common characteristic: a very high, even by Bulgarian standards, mortality rate.
Mortality rates are officially published at the district level, but they can also be calculated at the municipality level as a ratio between the number of deaths within a calendar year and the average annual population. Both indicators are published by the National Statistical Institute.
Calculated in the above manner, the mortality rate in the municipality of Bobov Dol in 2024 is 27.4‰ , in the municipality of Galabovo it is 23.8‰, and in the municipality of Radnevo it is 20.9‰. In the same year, the mortality rate for the whole of Bulgaria is 15‰ and it should be emphasized that this is the highest national mortality rate in the EU.
The data can be interpreted as follows: the average rate in the EU is one person dying per 100 people per year. In Bulgaria, about 1.5 per 100 people die in one year. In the coal municipalities of Bulgaria, about 2.5 per 100 people die in one calendar year, and especially in the municipality of Bobov Dol - even more. In the Bulgarian coal regions, the mortality rate is two to three times higher than the EU average. This is a startling finding.
Statistical confirmation
The graph above clearly shows that the mortality rate in coal-mining municipalities consistently exceeds the already high national level. However, in order to be sure that this difference is not due to random fluctuations, we need to apply special statistical tools.
The author uses a specially developed approach and thus practically compares the data for the three municipalities with the national level for the period 2015-2024. The statistical analysis confirms that the difference is not the result of random annual fluctuations alone. On average, coal-mining municipalities register 6.8 more deaths per 1,000 people per year than the national level. Given the population of coal-mining municipalities, the excess mortality in them is equal to 220 people per year.
The result remains statistically significant even when the COVID-19 years are excluded. The author's methodology for these calculations is described below.
How was the statistical analysis performed?
To check whether the higher mortality in coal-mining municipalities is permanent and statistically significant, and not the result of random fluctuations, the author compiles a panel of data for Bobov Dol, Galabovo and Radnevo, as well as for the national level, for the period 2015-2024.
A panel regression with random effects and robust standard errors was applied to the data, which allows us to estimate the difference associated with the status of a coal-mining municipality. The Wald test confirms that the difference from the national average is statistically significant (χ² = 41.85; p < 0.0001). To check whether the result was not mainly influenced by the increased mortality during COVID-19, the analysis was repeated for the period before the pandemic. The difference again remains statistically significant (χ² = 76.64; p < 0.0001). Fisher's exact test was used in the analysis of the survey of 40 experts. A strong statistical relationship (Cramer’s V = 0.66) was found between support for maintaining coal-fired power plants and the assessment that coal power does not pose a health risk.
This relationship alone does not show which of the two relationships is the cause of the other.
The explanations: complex and not so complex
The presence of statistically significant excess mortality in coal-fired municipalities has been proven, but the reasons can be debated. Without a doubt, the specific demographic structure has an influence. Roughly speaking, people who are characterized by a higher mortality rate usually live there.
In particular, in the coal municipalities for many years there has been an active exodus of young population (the mechanical growth in Galabovo is approaching -9‰ ), and the birth rate is very low (below 6‰ in Bobov Dol). In these areas there is also a professionally determined preponderance of the male population, which has a shorter life expectancy. In addition, the level of health services and prevention there is not good.
In addition to the listed factors, which undoubtedly contribute to the increased mortality, the well-documented air pollution in the coal regions also plays a very significant role.
In 2025 alone, according to official data summarized by “Greenpeace” -Bulgaria, in Golyamo Selo next to the “Bobov Dol“ TPP, 55 exceedances of the average hourly norm for sulfur dioxide were registered. In an attempt to determine the actual intensity of pollution near Golyamo Selo, an international team of “Greenpeace“ installed their own diffusion tubes – and measured on average 10 times higher than the officially reported values. Air pollution in Galabovo by “Brickel“ is also massive and chronic.
All this dumping of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and fine dust particles into the atmosphere cannot have no consequences for human health. Several international scientific studies provide estimates of excess mortality in Bulgaria due to coal-fired power generation. The statistical model of Kushta et al. (2021) found that coal combustion in Bulgarian thermal power plants causes 4.8% of national premature deaths from fine particulate matter air pollution, corresponding to 484 people.
Another study (Kelly, Tatari, Milivitra, 2024) estimates 333 premature deaths per year due to the activities of Bulgarian thermal power plants (confidence interval 202 - 552 - this is the number of deaths taking into account statistical error. ). The cost of increased mortality and increased morbidity according to these authors is equal to 0.9% of GDP. A total of 132,000 cases of asthma symptoms in children are expected by 2038, if Bulgaria maintains full coal capacity until then.
Coal advocates see no risk
Two international scientific sources and our own calculations based on official data reach similar results: hundreds of people in Bulgaria die every year due to coal pollution. But this does not impress coal advocates.
In early 2026, I conducted a survey of 40 experts (details in Sabev, 2026, pp. 121-168) on the problems of coal regions in Bulgaria. The specialists were selected so that the number of advocates and opponents of coal power in the sample was relatively equal.
The study provided important guidelines for the future of “Maritsa-East“ after coal, in particular for the transformation of the complex into a modern industrial center, but here I will pay attention to something else. I compared the answers to the question “Does coal power pose a threat to the life and health of local people?“ with the answers to the question “Do you agree with the statement that the Bulgarian state should do everything in its power to postpone the closure of coal-fired power plants?“
The statistical evaluation with Fisher's exact test showed a strong statistical relationship (Cramer’s V = 0.66): an expert who supports the preservation of coal-fired power plants almost certainly also claims that coal-fired power plants are not dangerous to health. It is reasonable to ask whether the statement that the health impact of coal-fired power plants is limited is actually due to a desire to maximize the life of coal-fired power plants?
Energy transition for demographic revival?
The socio-economic development of coal-fired municipalities in Bulgaria proves that money is not the answer to every question. In 2024, Radnevo ranks 5th and Galabovo 9th out of 265 municipalities in Bulgaria in terms of average gross salaries. However, the average results of students in mathematics at secondary education after the 7th grade place them in 193rd and 146th place, respectively. Bobov Dol Municipality is 30th in terms of average salaries and 215th in terms of students' mathematical success.
Lack of educational and health services, accelerated migration, negative natural growth... Coal municipalities are a place to earn salaries, but not to start families and raise children. With typical parental self-sacrifice, miners and energy workers ignore health risks so that they can continue to earn salaries with which to send their children to live elsewhere. On a personal level, this worldview may be heroic, but on a systemic level, it is destructive and should not be tolerated.
In discussions about the fate of coal regions, coal supporters see the Green Deal as a “disaster” that will lead to “mass unemployment and depopulation”. The reality is different: the depopulation of coal regions has been underway long before there was talk of an energy transition. A 2023 forecast by demographer Prof. Nadezhda Ilieva found that by 2050 the population of the municipalities of Radnevo and Galabovo would shrink by over 40% – simply following the then-current trajectory (from 2023) without any additional “green” measures.
From this perspective, “depopulation due to the energy transition” is a real victory: transferring the damage caused by coal onto a pan-European positive process. Similarly, the “mass unemployment” caused by the Green Deal is questionable: models for Poland’s vast coal regions show that the real threat is a shortage of labor, not jobs.
All this does not mean, of course, that the transition does not pose a risk to demography and employment, but that, with systematic measures to build a new economic structure, this risk can be turned into an opportunity for development. If the affected regions promptly break away from coal and adopt a new economic and industrial policy, key factors burdening regional demography will be removed.
The new industrial policy builds on the givens of the place – for “Marica East” these are a labor force with industrial experience, a powerful energy infrastructure and an excellent geographical location – and focuses on the development of clean and modern industries oriented towards global markets. World experience shows that the transformation of the current sad coal municipalities into attractive places to settle and live is possible. The main requirement is that business, science and the state work in harmony in the name of the national interest.