A potential victory for Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election could become a greater threat to Ukraine than Donald Trump’s retreat, writes Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group, in an analysis for The Guardian. According to him, European leaders are spending too much time discussing who should represent the European Union in possible negotiations with Russia and what Washington’s approach will be, while overlooking the possible consequences of the French election.
Rahman points out that since returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump has not provided any new US military aid to Kyiv. American arms sales remain important to the Ukrainian army, but according to the analysis, US military operations in the Middle East have placed additional strain on supplies of the systems Ukraine needs most, including interceptors for “Patriot” systems.
Ukraine also continues to rely heavily on US intelligence for early warning of Russian ballistic missiles. Europe will probably not be able to fully develop such a capability before 2030, but the author concludes that the US is already a less indispensable partner for Kyiv than it was two years ago.
Risk to European funding
According to Rahman, the most serious risk is linked to a possible victory for Le Pen in France’s presidential election in six months. He expects her to halt bilateral French aid to Ukraine and oppose an increase in France’s contribution to the EU budget.
Le Pen is threatening to block the union’s next seven-year budget, which includes a €100 billion financial mechanism for Ukraine. Through it, the EU plans to support Kyiv after 2028 as well. If France withdraws its support, other countries, including Italy, Spain, Greece, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, could limit their assistance, according to the analysis. A smaller group of northern and western European countries would then have to shoulder most of the financial burden.
Threats to membership and sanctions
Rahman also warns of a possible blockade of Ukraine’s European path. Key decisions on EU enlargement require unanimity, and Le Pen has already opposed Kyiv’s accession. She has also supported lifting the European sanctions against Russia, which are due to be renewed in July 2027.
The author considers the worst-case scenario to be one in which weakened European support forces Ukraine to accept an agreement on Moscow’s terms. Under it, Russia could demand constitutional recognition of the annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and possibly Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as well, along with the abandonment of NATO membership and restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces.
According to the analysis, such an agreement could trigger a referendum, a political crisis, protests and divisions in parliament. Rahman also warns of investors pulling out, delays to reconstruction, a new wave of refugees and the continuation of armed resistance in the occupied territories.
The author stresses that this scenario is not inevitable. It would occur only if US military and intelligence support ended simultaneously, European funding was halted and Russia launched a new mobilization. Nevertheless, he urges European capitals to plan with the worst possible outcome in mind, rather than expecting Le Pen to change her position after coming to power.
Sources: theguardian.com