According to Sunak, it would be dangerous to assume that threats to the security of the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe will diminish in the foreseeable future. This reality is particularly evident in the Arctic, where climate change, growing economic activity and the military presence of major powers are gradually turning the region into one of the key areas of geopolitical rivalry.
The former prime minister draws attention to the accelerating warming of the Arctic, which, according to the data he cites, is occurring approximately four times faster than the global average. This process is changing access to the region, opening up new maritime routes and intensifying competition for natural resources.
According to estimates cited by Sunak, the Arctic contains around 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas reserves.
Alongside energy resources, shipping is also becoming increasingly important. Sunak points out that between 2023 and 2025, the number of container shipments through the Arctic carried out by Chinese operators doubled. The Arctic route could roughly halve the time required for maritime transport between China and Europe compared with the traditional route through the Suez Canal.
Thus, the region is becoming important not only for military security, but also for the future structure of international trade, energy supplies and strategic transport corridors.
Russia’s Military Presence and the Importance of the Northern Fleet
At the centre of Sunak’s argument is Russia’s military presence in the Arctic. He recalls that Moscow has long concentrated a significant part of its nuclear military capabilities in the northern parts of the country.
The region’s geographic position provides Russia with strategic depth and access to the North Atlantic. At the same time, climate change is gradually altering the conditions for military operations, shipping and economic activity.
According to Sunak, Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly testing the West’s reactions by testing its defence capabilities and seeking to determine how quickly Moscow can expand its influence.
The former British prime minister pays particular attention to Russia’s Northern Fleet, whose strategic importance is growing against the backdrop of the constraints facing the Russian navy in the Baltic and Black Seas.
The Northern Fleet’s main naval and strategic facilities are concentrated in the Kola Peninsula area, near the borders of Norway and Finland. This makes the area an especially sensitive zone for NATO security.
For Sunak, the Arctic is the natural gateway to the North Atlantic. Therefore, any Alliance strategy for protecting the Atlantic region must include the capability to monitor and control the northern maritime areas.
He describes deterring Russia in the Far North as one of the most significant areas in which the United Kingdom can contribute to European security over the next decade.
The United Kingdom and NATO: Strengthening Defence in the Far North
Sunak emphasises that a more active British role in the Arctic corresponds both to the national interests of the United Kingdom and to the expectations of its allies in Europe and the United States.
As a specific example, he points to the announced British investment of £90 million in the construction of a new underwater surveillance system.
The initiative is linked to the Atlantic Net programme, which envisages the use of autonomous systems, unmanned platforms, sensors and artificial intelligence technologies to detect and track underwater threats in the North Atlantic.
According to the British Ministry of Defence, the system should improve the Royal Navy’s ability to detect Russian submarines and protect critical undersea infrastructure, including communications cables and energy networks.
The investment was officially announced on 10 November 2026 and is part of the broader Atlantic Bastion programme to modernise British naval capabilities.
Another important element of the strategy is deepening military cooperation with Norway.
In August 2025, Oslo selected the United Kingdom as its strategic partner for acquiring new Type 26 frigates. Norway is expected to purchase at least five such vessels, which will operate jointly with the eight British frigates of the same class.
This will create a combined fleet of at least 13 anti-submarine frigates designed to strengthen the defence of NATO’s northern flank and monitor Russian naval activity in the North Atlantic.
The cooperation agreement between the two countries also provides for coordination in training, the development of military technologies and the joint use of defence capabilities.
For Sunak, this project shows that the United Kingdom has allies in the Arctic who are ready to invest in defence and support more active British leadership in the region.
The Kola Peninsula – A Key Element of the Deterrence Strategy
The most substantial and potentially most controversial aspect of Sunak’s position concerns the need for the United Kingdom to demonstrate the capability to threaten Russian military bases on the Kola Peninsula in the event of an armed conflict.
According to the former prime minister, Moscow must clearly understand that military infrastructure in the Arctic is not beyond the reach of Western allies.
Sunak also highlights the role of British special forces, which he says possess the necessary experience to operate in the region’s specific climatic and geographic conditions.
In his concept, this is an important part of deterrence: Russia must be convinced that any escalation would put at risk not only Western interests, but also its own military infrastructure.
However, this also raises a significant question concerning the region’s security – to what extent can the demonstration of military capabilities prevent conflict without simultaneously increasing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
Sunak views this readiness as a necessary element in protecting British and allied interests.
The Arctic as Part of the Future Architecture of European Security
The former British prime minister’s message goes beyond specific proposals for naval cooperation and investment in defence technologies.
It places the Arctic at the centre of the broader question of the future architecture of European and transatlantic security.
The region is strategically important for protecting undersea infrastructure, freedom of navigation, military mobility between North America and Europe, and NATO’s ability to respond to crises in the North Atlantic.
In this context, the British position is also linked to relations with the United States. Sunak emphasises that security in the Arctic is a common interest of allies on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
In conclusion, he warns that Vladimir Putin will continue to look for weaknesses in European defences and test how far he can go without facing a decisive response.
According to Sunak, the United Kingdom and its allies must show that they have the necessary capabilities to counter such actions and, if necessary, inflict real damage on Russia’s military capabilities.
His main conclusion is that the North Atlantic has always been of crucial importance to British defence, but in the current strategic environment, the security of the Atlantic Ocean cannot be guaranteed without ensuring security in the Arctic.