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Vladimir Putin's war is increasingly awakening Europe

Perhaps Putin and Xi are finding more reasons to smile now, but Europeans want to be sure this is only a temporary situation

Май 28, 2024 18:45 85

Vladimir Putin's war is increasingly awakening Europe  - 1
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It was a carefully choreographed show of force in Beijing in Thursday, when Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived for another meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Everyone was smiling, writes CNN.

Meanwhile in Europe, the atmosphere can hardly be described as cheerful.

On Wednesday, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot and seriously wounded in an assassination attempt. Fizzo is now reportedly out of danger, with many details of the shooting still unclear. But the dramatic event heightened the sense of crisis in the region; the feeling that no matter how tense the situation is, it's time to prepare urgently because it could get a lot worse.

In the 10 days since Putin was sworn in for another term - his fifth as Russia's president - his forces launched a surprise attack on northeastern Ukraine, closing in on the country's second-largest city, Kharkiv, and seizing several Ukrainian villages .

Russia's blitzkrieg, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has canceled all foreign travel, is aimed at forcing Ukraine to stretch its defenses.

Tactically, Moscow's pressure has strengthened its position on the ground ahead of the arrival of promised US weapons in Ukraine. Politically, it comes months before a possible return to power of former President Donald Trump, who has indicated he will not continue President Joe Biden's level of support for Kiev.

Reiterating the alarm among supporters of Ukraine, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron called this an "extremely dangerous moment". Russia, he said, had effectively "invaded again".

Adding to the gloom, Europeans watched as Putin's allies in Georgia, a former Soviet republic, ignored mass street protests and approved a so-called "foreign agents" bill that is a near-copy of one used by the Kremlin to crushed the opposition and democracy. It was a victory for Moscow and a defeat for the vast majority of Georgians, who fervently want their country to join the democratic European Union.

Securing victories without going to war is cheaper. That is why Moscow is meddling in Moldova, another former Soviet republic hoping to join the European Union, and there is growing evidence of ongoing Russian campaigns to interfere in the many elections taking place in Europe and elsewhere, injecting disinformation and fueling political tensions .

Interestingly, Slovakia's foreign ministry accused Russia of meddling in Slovakia's elections, which brought Fico, a Putin admirer, to power. (Moscow has denied the allegations.)

Speaking to the media outside the hospital treating Fico on Wednesday, the country's interior minister warned that Slovakia was "on the brink of civil war" due to political tension. The minister also described the attack as politically motivated, saying the suspect told law enforcement officers he disagreed with Fico's politics.

What began as a Russian invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago has turned into an epochal challenge for Europe. As Russia advances into Ukraine, the entire region is waking up to the fact that this conflict is about more than the survival of a former Soviet republic. Every day the harsh reality that what started in Ukraine will change Europe for years to come becomes more inevitable.

Earlier this week in Moscow, Putin made another surprise move, removing longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. He replaced him with Andrey Belousov, a former civil servant who is an economist and well-versed in "issues of the military-industrial complex,", according to experts, suggesting that the plan now is to transform Russia into a full-fledged military economy.

Now Europe is also accelerating its own preparations, not only to support Ukraine, but also to defend itself.

Not too long ago, Ukraine seemed to have the upper hand, pushing Russia out of the territories it invaded. Now all that has changed. When far-right Republicans in the US House of Representatives stalled a military aid package for six long months, Russia reversed course.

The aid was approved last month, but it was too late. It will take some time for aid to arrive, and even then the imbalance in military supplies will continue.

Russia's militarized economy, under a no-complaint system with Putin in full control, not only receives weapons from Iran and North Korea and, according to the US, key aid from China - which it denies, ludicrously claiming it is neutral. In addition, Russia produces three times more artillery shells than the supporters of Ukraine.

With Russian forces on the rise and Putin framing the conflict as one against the West, Europe has undertaken a large-scale effort to prepare for the worst. When historians look back at this point, they will not be able to claim that Europe ignored the threat, even if the long post-Cold War decades were, as we now know, marked by excessive optimism about the lasting power of peace and democracy.

Norway, which shares an important border with Russia in the Arctic and is a member of NATO but not the EU, has announced a massive 12-year military investment plan. By 2036, its defense budget will double in size and its army will have triple the number of brigades.

In London, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak recently announced a big increase in defense spending to put the country on a "war footing".

In the Netherlands, where outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte is the favorite to become NATO chief, the defense budget is expected to double from $15.6 billion in 2022, when Russia started the war, to $31.2 billion until 2029

Perhaps most dramatically, French President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine. Earlier this month, he said the issue would arise legally if Russia broke through the front line and Zelensky asked for reinforcements.

Macron's comments were rejected by European allies who do not want to provoke Putin into a direct confrontation.

In fact, this fear has become a major constraint on Ukrainian soldiers on the ground: The White House prohibits Ukraine from striking targets in Russia with the weapons it provides. According to the Institute for the Study of War, the policy "seriously compromises Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian offensive operations" in the Kharkiv region, creating a "sanctuary" for Russia to attack Ukraine from the border areas.

It is high time to loosen these restrictions. Ukraine must be allowed to defend itself, even if it means striking inside Russian borders. The price of allowing Putin to subjugate Ukraine is, as is becoming increasingly clear, too high.

Despite rejecting the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, Germany is apparently preparing to reintroduce conscription. A leaked document has revealed that Berlin is considering conscription for 18-year-old men and women, a sign that the current crisis has become a turning point in views on national and regional security, with ramifications that will last for years no matter how and when this war is over.

The preparations for a possible war are most startling in Finland, which shares Europe's longest border with Russia and which has already lost territory to Kremlin incursions. Finland has built up not only its civilian shelters and its stockpiles of weapons, ammunition and fuel, but also grain to feed the population.

"Russia respects strength," said Finnish Lt. Gen. Miko Heiskanen, outlining a multi-year plan to prepare for the country's defense.

Maybe Putin and Xi are finding more reasons to smile now, but Europeans want to be sure that this is only a temporary situation.