Some time ago, a day after the visit of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Moscow, information came out that that a Turkish and Syrian delegation met at the Russian-run Hmeimim air base in Syria.
Then there was a second meeting in Baghdad. Naturally, Russia is at the bottom of such meetings. Moscow has an interest in pacifying the situation in Syria and it is no coincidence that for a long time it maintained the so-called process from Astana to find a solution to end the heavy fighting on Syrian soil. Where the players are so many, the interests so divergent, that there is more talk of dividing Syria than of peace in Assad's country.
It turns out that Ankara is also interested in restoring normal relations with Damascus, and the first attempts at contact are, of course, through the special services of both countries. Undoubtedly, events in the Middle East and fears of an escalation of the war from Gaza across the region are game-changers, including in anticipation of surprises in Syria. For years, there has been a status quo in the country, where the USA, Iran, Russia and Turkey maintain their positions.
With the normalization of relations between Damascus and Ankara, the status quo would be broken. The CIA, according to writings in American media, fears that it will lose its position if Turkey and Syria come to an understanding. On the one hand, there was talk that the US would leave Syria, and on the other hand, a new strategy was introduced to the project by merging terrorist structures in Northern Iraq and Syria. This is how the influence expands.
In response, Ankara decided to play hard and organized a meeting in Iraq with representatives of the PKK, considered allies of Washington, who are in direct contact with the Syrian Kurds. Tensions along the line with the US rose.
However, the question of what happens next if the US really leaves Syria remained on the agenda. In what direction will the surprises be? Moreover, in Syria, the US and its military forces are stationed in the Syrian oil fields. According to Ankara, Washington's main goal in pulling back to focus on China is to ensure Israel's security. They need an agreement between Riyadh and Tel Aviv to balance Iran with a Saudi-led consortium. Then to associate Assad with Riyadh, instead of being an ally of Tehran.
Riyadh already has an ambassador in Damascus, and information has leaked that “Assad has had occasional conversations with the US, which he described as politics through the art of the possible”. Not forgetting that Beijing has already managed to establish more than contacts between Tehran and Riyadh, and this has enabled action by Washington in this part of the Middle East.
It is known that US allies in Syria are the Syrian Kurds, their organization YPG, which is sister to the PKK, and the goal is to get them partial autonomy in Syria. In this way, they are tied to Damascus and have their strings pulled by Washington. This is something that Moscow offered them years ago, and with far more impressive autonomy.
Now the US wants to avoid a failure like the one in Afghanistan and is watching carefully Assad's announced plans for a dialogue aimed at obtaining a political solution for the northern Syrian regions. Iraqi media reports that the country's prime minister, Sudani, is willing to facilitate dialogue between Ankara and Damascus and is discussing it with the two countries separately.
Damascus's preconditions are that Turkish forces withdraw from Syria and then start a dialogue. But there is a change in this regard as well. At this stage, it is stated that to start a dialogue, it is enough for Turkey to “declare its intention to withdraw from Syrian lands”. The signal is that there is an easing of the conditions for talks to normalize relations. Turkey's defense minister, Yasar Güler, said they were “ready to support the adoption of a comprehensive constitution, the holding of free elections, comprehensive normalization and the creation of a secure environment. To guarantee security on our borders and then the withdrawal of Turkish troops will be considered.
The negotiations with Damascus involve both Russia and Iran, which is not welcomed by Turkey. Turkey's conditions for normalizing relations with Damascus are to support the fight against terrorism, disarm the PKK, expel terrorists coming from Iraq to northern Syria and ensure the safe return of refugees to the country. Damascus is unlikely to be able to fulfill such conditions on its own, but compromises are always relied upon in dialogue. Especially when Israel with tanks stands on the border with Lebanon, where Syria was the leading power for years. Moreover, Israel often fires missiles at Syrian territories and even carried out an attack in Damascus on a diplomatic representation of Iran, where senior military personnel of Tehran were killed.
Now the heavy weapons along the border with Lebanon are aimed at Hezbollah. That Hezbollah, which also has a role in Syria itself and its battles to preserve the Syrian state. Hezbollah, which is the crown jewel of Iranian proxies. The world is once again on edge and in fear of a new hot conflict.
All these events speed up contact between players on the field. The US has been pushing for elections for the PKK to organize in northeastern Syria, but they were postponed from May to June 11 and then to August. Turkey is pushing for direct intervention, but the US has its own plans. In response, Turkey conducts a series of contacts and intensive diplomacy with a number of international interlocutors, in which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, MIT and Ministry of Defense participate. Loudness is not given. Just a comment that “if the US allows elections in northern Syria and its efforts to create statehood there, Ankara and Washington will be pitted against each other”. Whatever that means.
But the Kurdish question is more than a sore subject for Turkey, and it is considered that it threatens the integrity of the country and that it is a leverage for US influence. Therefore, the tone is hardened and it is warned that a “confrontation even on a military level” may occur. Of course, Ankara cannot and is not in a position to risk a military confrontation with Washington. Turkish media reports that it is actually the opposite. Because that would blow up the Atlantean world order. Even if US influence around the world is waning. Such a conclusion is drawn because the US “fails to subdue Russia, is unable to crush Iran and cannot deal with China”.
It turns out that these US efforts are backfiring, whatever else it suggests. But this hardly means that Ankara has a stronger hand against Washington on the subject. The internal situation in Turkey itself also interferes. Relations with the USA within the system are also hindered - from business to politics, from government to state institutions, membership in NATO and the established Atlantic system around the world. No matter that the attempted coup of July 15, 2016 in Turkey set a turning point in the relations between the two countries.
Turkey where openly, where covertly points to the US as the initiator of this coup attempt. Some Turkish media even write that this has reached “decomposition of the nation”. In fact, this is how the struggle for power is conducted. All over the world, not only in Turkey. Questions of whether it is necessary to risk confrontation with the US in order to protect national interests and sovereignty are topics that are increasingly discussed among the media, society and politicians. The threat of military confrontation cools passions, but, as always, there are fewer answers than questions. The important thing is to follow the processes. Especially from the neighbors and with the heated situation in geopolitics lately. Indeed, the world is not only Ukraine and Gaza.