DPS splits, splits, disintegrates, etc. This is the result of the war between Ahmed Dogan and Delyan Peevski. The BSP expelled the party's leader, Cornelia Ninova. GERB, “Revival“ and ITN are watching this whole series from the sidelines. The boat of PP-DB seemed to rock, but the Executive Board of "Yes, Bulgaria" made a decision for the party to remain in the "We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria" coalition. This was announced by MP Bozhidar Bojanov. He also stated that the coalition aims to win back up to 100,000 voters out of a total of 300,000 lost in the previous elections.
"My position is to act responsibly. My opinion is one, but our party is discussing the issue very thoroughly, taking into account all the benefits and risks, we will act responsibly“, Bojanov also stated.
From "Democrats for a strong Bulgaria" (DSB) also announced that their decision is to remain in the "We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria" coalition.
The MP bone is not to be dropped
That is more than clear. But there are several dramas in PP-DB. In the first place is the arrangement of the sheets. Which formation will have more CHOICEABLE seats. “Yes, Bulgaria” they want internal elections, PP don't even want to hear about such a thing. And the reason is very simple. "We continue the change" participated for the first time in parliamentary elections on November 14, 2021. And as a coalition "We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria" appeared for the first time together in parliamentary elections on April 2, 2023.
What the vote poses:
„Democratic Bulgaria” in the elections on April 4, 2021, there are 302,280 votes
“Democratic Bulgaria” in the elections on July 11, 2021, there are 345,331 votes
“Democratic Bulgaria” in the elections on November 14, 2021, there are 166,968 votes
“We continue the change” in the elections on November 14, 2021, there are 673,170
(the two have a total of 840,138 votes)
“Democratic Bulgaria” in the elections on October 2, 2022, they have 186,528 votes
“We continue the change” in the elections on October 2, 2022, there are 506,099 votes
(the two have a total of 692,627 votes)
PP-DB (already as a coalition) in the elections on April 2, 2023 have 621,069 votes
PP-DB in the elections on June 9, 2024 have 307,848 votes
Now already – as a coalition, the PP keeps the lists lined up in proportion to the result of the October 2 election. Then PP have 506,099 votes, and DB – 186,528 votes. Roughly, the bill shows just under 2/3 in favor of PP. And here comes the turn of the electable places in the lists and who will be in such a place. PP wants to have more, DB doesn't like it, but they break their fingers and wring their hands to be in the parliament. Another question is whether PP today can take 500,000 votes alone, but the deal with DB is like that. That is why the DB want internal elections to decide who and how to participate in the elections, but they are not succeeding.
And so we reach the big goal of the PP-DB coalition regaining 100,000 votes. Why, because that way they will most likely not have to fall off the "friends" lists, for which it is extremely important to be MPs. And from this it follows that there will be no angry people in the two formations.
What is 100,000 votes
In the last elections on June 9, 2024, the voter turnout was 34.41%, which means that 2,268,849 people voted (out of 6,593,275 according to the list). 7,835 votes were enough for the election of one representative in the Bulgarian Parliament in these elections.
The allocation of parliamentary seats in the 50th Parliament is as follows:
- GERD – SDF – 68 places
- Movement for rights and freedoms – 47 places
- “We continue the change“ – “Democratic Bulgaria” – 39 places
- “Revival“ – 38 places
- “BSP for Bulgaria” – 19 places
- “There is such a people” – 16 places
- “Majesty“ – 13 places
Now at the vote on October 27, voter turnout is expected to drop even more – understand under 2.2 million people. This means that about 7,500 votes per deputy will be needed to enter the parliament. According to Bozhidar Bojanov, the coalition's ambitious goal is to regain 100,000 votes out of the 300,000 lost. 100,000 votes means about 13 MPs. Now PP-DB has 39 people's representatives, if they get back 100,000 votes, they will have 13 more deputies. Apparently they need that much so that there are no angry “friends” and everyone in the coalition be happy. With just over 50 MPs, will they want to govern…
For the coalition
Between the parties in the coalition, whether there is a normal political debate... Their polarization has created dividing lines and the impossibility of cooperation on key topics for their voters. As this does not only apply to this coalition. Therefore, it is not surprising that our country continues to lag behind the strategic goals and priorities for its European development. Bulgaria's entry into the Eurozone, as well as its accession to the Schengen area, were postponed indefinitely. The main part of the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Plan have not yet been absorbed. To some extent, the country is also positioning itself as an unreliable partner of democratic states in their support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion of 2022.
What history shows
In 2017, the newly created “Yes, Bulgaria“ and DSB appeared separately in the elections and neither of the two formations managed to enter the parliament. In April 2021, however, they have already united and together they manage to attract the votes of the traditional democratic community in the country and get 27 mandates (302 thousand votes or 9.45%). In July 2021, the coalition received 34 mandates and even greater support - 345 thousand votes (12.64%), despite the populist rise of ITN.
In November 2021, the campaign will include "Continuing the Change", and some of its leaders were co-founders of DB. Thus, it is not surprising that the electorate of the two formations largely overlaps. As a result, DB received only 167 thousand votes (6.4%). PP attracted 673 thousand votes (25.7%) and became the first political force.
In October 2022, the two formations again appear independently in the elections, and their results are: DB -187 thousand votes (7.5%), and PP - 506 thousand votes (20.2%).
two in April 2023, the two formations appear together, but this decision is already too late for some of the voters and the total votes they receive are 621 thousand. Among the reasons for this is the decreasing voter turnout after the conduct of 5 election campaigns for two years. Also, studies show that the authentically democratic community rather dislikes the more left-wing representatives of the PP. Last but not least, a large part of the PP electorate also includes voters of President Radev and ITN, who would not support the more right-wing parties in the coalition.
The loss of electoral support acquired colossal proportions in June 2024, when the coalition also split with its partners from the “Green Movement”.
If only they had said something about politics now…