By suddenly reaching out to Kurdish politicians from the Democratic Party in October, the chairman of the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action Party, Devlet Bahçeli, caused a big surprise. For years, he had argued that the left-wing pro-Kurdish Democratic Party (DP), like its predecessor, the Peoples' Democratic Party, was a puppet of the terrorist organization PKK and should therefore be banned.
Surprising proposal
Even more surprising was the proposal that Bahçeli made a few weeks later - that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan be released under certain conditions if he announced the dissolution of the PKK. This approach of the chairman of the Nationalist Action Party was very unexpected, as it is considered a proto-organization of the right-wing extremist “Grey Wolves“ and is known for its hostile ideology towards minorities. In the following days, Öcalan was visited by his family for the first time in 43 months. The 76-year-old PKK leader has been isolated in prison since 1999.
There was a peace process with the PKK ten years ago, but in 2015 Erdogan suspended it. After several years without violence, the bloody conflict flared up again. The Turkish government has launched a tough crackdown on Kurdish politicians in the country and military operations in Northern Iraq, where the PKK is headquartered, as well as in Northeastern Syria, where a de facto Kurdish self-government has been established.
What is the goal?
Ever since Bahçeli's proposal for the early release of Öcalan, Turkey has been speculating about Ankara's intentions. Why are government representatives seeking closeness to Öcalan, while at the same time elected Kurdish local politicians are being removed from office? Has the government held secret talks with the PKK leader, but without achieving what it wanted?
Most recently, the district mayor of the Istanbul municipality of Esenyurt was arrested for alleged ties to the PKK. A few days later, three Kurdish mayors were forcibly replaced in the southeast of the country, including the doyen of Kurdish politics, Ahmed Türk.
Observers are unanimous - Erdogan wants to become president for the fourth time. This would require a change in the constitution, but Erdogan does not have the necessary majority in parliament. To achieve this, he intends to subjugate the Kurds and the pro-Kurdish Democratic Party. In return, he is tempting them with concessions - such as easing house arrest for Öcalan or ending the practice of forcible rule of the Kurdish regions. In addition, he could thus divide the opposition.
A change in the balance of power in the Middle East?
According to political scientist Arzu Yılmaz, other reasons also play a decisive role in the latest proposal. "First of all, there is the unstable situation in the Middle East and the decision of the US administration to withdraw its troops from Iraq and Syria by 2026." After Donald Trump's re-election, this could probably happen earlier, she suggests. There are still 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq, and 900 in Syria, where they cooperate closely with local Kurdish militias. "The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting, but Turkey, despite its ambitions, is not a major player there," says Yilmaz. Ankara probably wants to change that too.
The same opinion is shared by Beze Hozat from the Association of Communities in Kurdistan, which is close to the PKK. In an interview, she said that Turkey's geopolitical and geostrategic position and influence in the region are gradually weakening. This is causing panic in the Turkish government, which is looking for a way out and is trying to use the Kurdish leader Öcalan for its own purposes.
New military operations are expected
On Sunday, Erdogan announced that he would soon plug the “security gaps on the southern borders“. This is interpreted as a threat to further Turkish military operations in Syria and Iraq.
Arzu Yılmaz believes that the Iraqi Kurds should not worry about their future - their status is written into the country's Constitution. But the future of the Kurds in northern Syria is unclear. So far, they have enjoyed the support of the United States, but it is not known what will happen after the withdrawal of American troops and how the resulting power vacuum will be filled. Cooperation between Kurds from different regions will be crucial. “This will ultimately determine whether the Kurds emerge from this crisis stronger or weaker.“
Sources from within the PKK say that a first meeting of representatives of Kurdish parties from Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey has taken place in Brussels - to discuss the situation in the Middle East and Ankara's proposal. Nothing is known about the results. The Kurds are the largest people in the world without their own state. It is estimated that over 12 million Kurds live in Turkey, six million in Iraq and Iran each, and three million in Syria.
Author: Elmaz Topcu