If we ask the Virgin Mary what she thinks about what has been happening in Tbilisi in recent days, he would probably say something like "the Georgian Maidan is like the Ukrainian Maidan, only it's Georgian". Which is witty, but not particularly true. Because the similarities may be striking, but the differences are more significant.
What does the Kyiv Maidan of 11 years ago have in common with the protests in Georgia now? Undoubtedly, in both cases it is a public reaction against the suspension of the European integration process. As in 2013-14. in Kiev, and now in Tbilisi, the protesters see the "long arm of the Kremlin", while the rulers, in turn, accuse the West of fomenting unrest. And it seems that the main similarities end there.
But let's see the differences.
The Ukrainian Maidan was indeed an expression of the opposition between Europe and the "Russian peace", between the "Western" and the "eastern" Ukrainians - both geographically and geopolitically. The latter were even mostly Russian-speaking.
There is no such dilemma in Georgia. The opposition is between the pro-Europeans and... also the pro-Europeans, who, however, are not so uncritical of Brussels. For Georgians, Russia is what Turkey is for us. Or more precisely, what the Ottoman Empire was for our ancestors in the first years and decades after the Liberation. On the other hand, Georgia's aspiration for EU membership is enshrined in the country's Constitution. That is, there is a national consensus for the European perspective that transcends party differences.
As of 2013, it still appeared that Ukraine and Russia could coexist peacefully, with Ukraine's territorial integrity intact. The annexation of Crimea and the separation of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" happened after the Maidan. And at that time a "special military operation" aimed at the capital Kyiv was unthinkable.
With Georgia, things are completely different. The separatist entities of Abkhazia and South Ossetia exist on its territory (guess with whose help?), and the memory of the Russian invasion in 2008 is fresh enough and remembered by all those who protest these days. In addition, because of this war, Georgia and Russia still do not maintain diplomatic relations.
Viktor Yanukovych, who at the end of 2013 refused to sign the agreement on the association of Ukraine with the EU, was pro-Russian everywhere. While from "Georgian Dream" they are trying to play in the tertype of Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico - "to be good with both the Russians and the Germans", as Alec's hero said, but Europe remains a priority. Let's not forget that this is the same political force that submitted Georgia's application for EU membership in 2022. Oh, and helping Ukraine after the Russian invasion...
The suspension of negotiations with the European Union is a fact and at first reading it sounds worrying, therefore the reactions in the form of protest actions are understandable. Important detail: it has been announced that negotiations are being frozen for 4 years, not terminated altogether.
The formal argument for stopping the negotiation process is that "the EU is blackmailing Georgia" with the non-recognition of the recent election victory of "Georgian Dream". In fact, things are deeper - the friction between Tbilisi and Brussels is not from yesterday.
A year and a half ago, the Georgian rulers started an initiative to push a law to combat "foreign agents", which was definitely not to the taste of the European Union. Then there were civil protests (also likened to "Georgian Maidan"), which led to the temporary withdrawal of the bill. But in the end, in the summer of this year "Georgian Dream" imposed his own and the law came into effect.
Another controversial topic is the rights of the LGBT community. Even the president of Georgia got involved in the battle between the government and the European institutions, who vetoed a bill restricting the activities of LGBT activists. But even in this case, the government managed to impose its will and the law was passed in the second reading, and quite soon before the elections at the end of October.
So, the rulers in Tbilisi managed to accumulate "asset" from opposition to Brussels. Which means that the bold move of suspending the EU membership negotiations shouldn't come as a big surprise.
As for the allegations against "Georgian Dream" for "turn" in the direction of Moscow, it is appropriate to make an important clarification. It is never out of the question that the power in Tbilisi will end up in the vortex of the Kremlin - because of delusions, corruption or some kind of tarikatlak. But such faltering cannot rely on serious public support.
And here we come to perhaps the most important difference between today's Georgia and Ukraine of 11 years ago.
Kiev Maidan had to succeed at all costs - otherwise Ukraine was going into the ditch of "Russian peace" and any prospects for integration into NATO and the EU were becoming a chimera. (Not that it has blossomed and tied now, but this is due to completely different reasons.) Pro-Russian sentiments in the eastern regions have always been strong enough.
And whether the current Georgian protests will achieve their goal or fizzle out - should not be of crucial importance. With or without street pressure, the rulers in Tbilisi are expected to resume the negotiation process at some point. Or suffer the consequences if they don't. The people just won't forgive them. This is as if someone in Bulgaria had declared against our joining the EU in 2003 - can you imagine that?
Georgia is Europe. Another question is to what extent Europe is behaving adequately towards Georgia. But it does not behave particularly adequately towards Ukraine either - neither during the Maidan nor during the Russian aggression. And in Kiev, for the first time, people fought and died for the flag with the 12 stars. Hopefully the second time won't be in Tbilisi...