During the election campaign, in almost every speech, Trump stated that after his victory he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. In the meantime, however, nothing of the kind has been heard, ARD notes. During his first press conference after the election victory, Trump spoke about Israel's war in the Gaza Strip and Russia's war in Ukraine. He described the situation in the Middle East as relatively easy and moving in the right direction. But he called the Russian-Ukrainian situation “complicated“.
Michael Walz, nominated by Trump as national security adviser, describes the situation in Ukraine as follows: “We have to end the fighting. We will seriously study the question of whether the first step in that direction could not be the establishment of some kind of ceasefire“. This was stated by Walz to CBS.
The picture of the situation is only now taking shape
Trump and his team are only now apparently engaged in forming a realistic assessment of the situation, says John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who now works for the Atlantic Council. Those who think that Trump will simply cut off aid to Ukraine and thus give a unilateral advantage to Russia are probably mistaken, Herbst argues.
“All the people that Trump nominates for crucial positions in the country understand that Russia is a dangerous enemy of the United States“, Herbst also said, quoted by ARD. This applies to the members of Trump's chosen future cabinet – Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Michael Walz, Ukraine Special Representative Keith Kellogg, even the controversial Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Oil Prices as a Tool for Pressure
But what tools of pressure does the US have to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate?
ARD again quotes John Herbst as saying: “We can put enormous pressure on Russia. Trump will demand a significant increase in US oil and gas production and exports from day one. This will put pressure on oil prices to the detriment of Russia“.
Trump may also threaten to give Ukraine significantly more weapons than they received from the hesitant Joe Biden, the former diplomat suggests.
The end of Ukraine's NATO ambitions?
According to Herbst, Trump's peace plan may be based on four main points. However, two of them are difficult to accept for Ukraine - “De facto, it is about placing Ukrainian territory under Russian control. And about refusing to join NATO for a period of 20 years“.
The other two points are difficult to accept for Russia: “Creating a demilitarized zone in which security would be guaranteed by European ground forces – that is, by a peacekeeping corps with solid powers“, as Herbst points out. And second: “Arming Ukraine so that it is able to defend itself against future Russian attacks“.
However, the central place will be occupied by US security guarantees - not only directly for Ukraine, but also for European ground forces, Herbst suggests, quoted by ARD. In this case, American soldiers will not be forced to participate in ground operations - in the event of a Russian provocation, it would be important to provide American air support through aircraft and missiles.
Under what circumstances would a lasting peace be possible
The German public-law media is also looking for an answer to the question of what period would be realistic for an end to military actions. According to Herbst, it will probably take two to three months after the first contact with Putin is established until he reacts. After more months of negotiations in the fall, the European peacekeeping forces could be activated by the end of next year at the latest, the former diplomat believes.
And what should their number be? “If a large number of European soldiers are deployed in Ukraine - for example, 100,000 soldiers - and the US decisively repels any Russian provocation, lasting peace is possible“, Herbst says.
"Trump does not want to be the loser"
American political scientist Mark Katz is much more restrained. Both Trump's approach and Putin's behavior are too unpredictable to make specific predictions, he emphasizes to ARD.
But Katz also does not believe that Trump will abandon Ukraine to its fate. “Last year, many Republicans were against aid to Ukraine because they didn't want Biden to succeed. If now, under Trump, Ukraine is defeated, that would be a defeat for Trump as well. And he definitely doesn't want to look like a loser“.
In response to the question of where he sees Ukraine in a year, Katz told ARD the following: “What I really hope for is that in a year there will be a ceasefire. Because otherwise we have to set ourselves up for a real big war in Europe“.