Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
"The Unborn Petko" of President Rumen Radev - the party to which political scientists attribute superpowers even before its emergence - has acquired vague outlines of a civil movement born from the depths of anger to which the elites are deaf.
The Good Shepherd - or the Good Flock
At the National Assembly of Sheep Breeders, the president spoke about the need for "a new political alternative that would oppose the conquest of the country by the oligarchic model". Asked if he was ready to lead it, Rumen Radev replied that "this will come from the people who want their voices to be heard and to whom the authorities do not pay attention". Such voices have been heard loudly in Europe in the last ten years - with the rise of Eurosceptic formations. The clown Beppe Grillo, for example, the first leader of the "5 Star" Movement, insisted on a referendum on Italy's exit from the eurozone and promised how he would deal with the elites so that the voice of the disadvantaged could be heard.
In Bulgaria, this trend has intensified in recent years, and the competition is fiercer, as populism has been taken up as a weapon by every political debutant. The rhetoric of leaders who promise to act for and on behalf of the people because the elites are deceiving them is on the rise - just like "Ponzi" schemes, in which the hope of new participants ensures the profit of the first ones until the fraud collapses under its own weight.
In today's world, social relations are undergoing a boom of "innovation". Old matrices are crumbling under the influence of geopolitical upheavals and technological accelerators, but also under the influence of social networks, which have provided a voice and visibility to each individual. The new movements are not left-wing, although they talk about social inequalities, but they are not right-wing either - although they preach order, security and traditional values. Their leaders, who "rise up" against the old elites, prefer to impose an electoral autocracy like the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
And all this as in the old and false socialist slogan: "Everything in the name of man, everything for the good of man!". But in the end, man turns out to be forgotten, and the good - appropriated by the nomenclature elite. A similar political spell has been chosen by the oligarch and leader of "DPS-New Beginning" Delyan Peevski, the chairman of GERB Boyko Borisov also works in the name of the people, the president swears in the cause of "democracy", the leader of "Vazrazhdane" Kostadin Kostadinov swears in Bulgarian greatness. Along with the Bulgarian language and the recitatives about people's power, the last two pass through Shipka to the Kremlin.
The timing - and the effects on the system
Even if Rumen Radev creates a party that will enter the next parliament, for a real deconstruction of the "old elites" he will need allies. Of the rhetorically similar formations - ITN, "Velichye" and MECH - the last two are in danger of remaining below the line if the "presidential" crosses it. Therefore, he will look for other Eurosceptics, defenders of national identity and conservative education, to govern - because that is what Radev and his circle are striving for. But why only such? It may try to reconstruct an anti-Peevski-anti-Borisov majority, and then the PP-DB will be in a difficult position to make a choice.
The development of these hypotheses depends on the future outcome of future elections, which are starting to be talked about again. Of importance for their outcome is whether they will be held before or after January 1, 2026, when Bulgaria is expected to become the 21st country in the eurozone. "I fear that there may be elections in October and the majority from pro-European to pro-Russian", said on bTV the chairman of the budget committee Delyan Dobrev (GERB), provoked by the intention of "We Continue the Change" (PP) to request a vote of no confidence in the government.
It is not the first time that the PP has said that they will do so after the convergence reports expected this week on Bulgaria's readiness to adopt the euro. There is still no confirmation from their coalition partner "Democratic Bulgaria" (DB) that they will join these opposition actions.
If Bulgaria enters the eurozone on January 1, 2026, this will take away the energy of a future "presidential party" in elections next year, especially if it tries to mobilize public support through sovereignist and Eurosceptic messages. The euro will be a fact and some of the anti-EU energy will disappear - it will be difficult with the propaganda of scaremongering about how bad it is, since there are no collapses and life goes on.
Then the focus of the messages will have to shift to some new type of social patriotism. In France, Marine Le Pen promised to protect the French identity and a welfare state only for the French. Under the pretext of social justice, it does not prevent her from adapting to Bulgarian soil, and thus the "presidential" party will distinguish itself from the competitor "Vazrazhdane", which uses mainly anti-European rhetoric.
No stardust
Despite having the image of a fighter against the parties and the "black hole of the oligarchy, which is increasingly swallowing the Bulgarian political system," Radev is not bathing in the stardust of his first presidential term. After his caretaker governments and the contract with "Botas", which was harmful to Bulgarian national interests, concluded by the latter of them, his reputation is not so bright.
Due to its populist leanings, the future "presidential" party has a chance to attract voters from all formations. From GERB it will take conservatives, disappointed and Eurosceptics, from "Vazrazhdane" - more moderate patriots who are looking for a strong but not so radical national alternative, from BSP - left-wing voices and socialist nostalgics.
Even PP-DB risks losing part of its periphery, attracted by the messages against the corrupt backstage that Radev exploits. The war in Ukraine has brought to the fore the pro-Russian leanings of the president, for whose second term in the fall of 2021, when parliamentary elections were also held, 91% of those who cast ballots voted for the PP, as well as 70% of those who voted for the DB, according to Alpha Research data.
The paradox is that politicians with sympathies for the Russian regime - the cradle of the oligarchy, will destroy the Bulgarian one. But… "unborn Petko" anything is possible.