After the attacks by Ukrainian drones against Russian strategic aviation airfields, a number of Western media outlets and experts are talking about a "historic" event in Russia's war against Ukraine. "Süddeutsche Zeitung" even called it "Russia's biggest failure" since the start of the war in February 2022.
There is more than one precedent with unexpected attacks using aircraft - for example, Taranto, where in 1940 the British Air Force attacked the Italian fleet. Or Pearl Harbor, although this comparison is controversial, since Ukraine, unlike Japan, is defending itself, and experts tell DW that they do not expect a "strategic turn" in the war.
Ukraine has already attacked and destroyed Russian aircraft at distant airfields, but now it is doing it for the first time in this way and on such a scale. A record depth of attack was also registered - for the first time the military airfield "Belaya" in the Irkutsk region in Siberia was attacked.
The Ukrainian Security Service reported on Sunday attacks on four Russian airfields. More than 40 aircraft were destroyed or damaged by drones, including Tu-95 and Tu-22MZ bombers, as well as an A-50 reconnaissance aircraft. Russia is using nuclear-capable bombers to launch conventional cruise missiles against Ukraine - including against civilian targets deep in the rear.
Hardly recoverable losses
"This is a signal to Russia and the West of what Ukraine is capable of", military expert Carlo Massala told DW. According to him, this "impressive operation" is important against the backdrop of discussions in the West about the difficulties of the Ukrainian army in repelling the Russian offensive, especially in Donbas. At the same time, however, Massala does not believe that this event will have a strong impact on the situation on the front, since Russia has enough other aircraft to carry out bombing missions and, above all, to drop guided bombs near the areas of combat operations.
Observer Nikolai Mitrokhin is of a similar opinion. He notes that the attack represents a sensitive blow to Russian aviation. "Such aircraft are not produced and judging by the state of the Russian aviation industry, they will not be produced. Another issue is that there are enough of this type of aircraft for the tasks being performed. Usually, Russia uses seven or eight aircraft in attacks with mass missile launches. Considering that it has 90-100 machines, although some of them are not working and do not fly, they are still enough to perform the tasks", Mitrokhin points out, but adds: "Each such strike - and these types of strikes are carried out one after another - reduces the number of aircraft. And in the end, Russia may be left without such aviation".
Military expert Kelly Grieco from the Washington-based Stimson Center also told DW that it will be difficult for Russia to recover its losses. According to her, any loss of an A-50 aircraft would be "particularly sensitive" for Russia. According to media reports, Russia has about a dozen such aircraft, and Ukraine previously shot down two of them.
Grieko suggests that Russia can continue to use its strategic aviation to strike Ukraine, but it will be faced with a choice - to risk the loss of valuable aircraft with the ability to carry nuclear charges in the event of new strikes, to make more flights with fewer machines, or to launch missiles from other carriers. The American expert says that in general Russia continues to have nuclear power, primarily in the form of its submarine fleet, but Ukraine has revealed Russia's vulnerability. And its neighbors, including China, as well as countries such as the United States, will pay attention to this. Against this background, Grieco describes the current situation as dangerous in terms of Moscow's response.
How Russia might respond and what Trump will say
"I don't think Russia will respond by escalating to a nuclear level, but we can't rule it out - we have to think about it," says Grieco. According to her, Russia's response will be "significant". But what exactly? Grieco believes that the Russians will want to do something visible to the world, such as using a new type of missile against Ukraine.
As for Donald Trump, Grieco says that she would be very surprised if it turns out that the Ukrainians informed the Trump administration before the strike. The expert believes that Trump may recognize Ukraine's right to carry out such strikes after Russia continues its shelling, but may also decide that in this way the Ukrainians are undermining his attempts to reach a peace agreement. The American president is too "volatile", so it is "difficult to predict which direction he will choose," says the American expert.
Author: Roman Goncharenko