NATO membership is no longer the best path for Slovakia.
This unexpected and sensational statement for many was made by Prime Minister Robert Fico on June 17. Commenting on the need to increase defense spending, he supported the idea of Slovakia's neutrality. This means that the country should withdraw from NATO.
In addition, he stated that he had already held the relevant negotiations.
This caused a lot of loud criticism not only from the opposition, but also from the country's president. Moreover, the extremely sharp tone of President Pellegrini's response was sensational in itself - the head of state had never criticized Prime Minister Fico in such a way before.
Then why did Robert Fico make such a scandalous statement?
Is he really planning to withdraw Slovakia from the Alliance? And what is behind Pellegrini's unexpectedly harsh criticism?
And most importantly, what does this have to do with the plans of the Slovak authorities to hold early parliamentary elections in the near future?
Fico - the "pacifist"
"Speaking for myself, I can tell you that in these senseless times of armaments, when arms companies are rubbing their hands together, like pharmaceutical companies during COVID, neutrality would be very good for Slovakia," Robert Fico said on June 17 during a visit to the Ministry of Economy.
This was in response to a journalist's question about the Slovak prime minister's attitude to NATO's new requirement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Fico has previously criticized NATO's plans to require an increase in defense spending, but this is the first time he has spoken about the greater benefits of neutrality (i.e., the expediency of leaving the Alliance).
In addition, the head of the Slovak government immediately added that he raised the issue of the country's neutrality “very officially and very clearly“.
Fico did not specify what this meant - when, to whom, under what circumstances and in what form he spoke about “neutrality“.
And although the Slovak prime minister immediately added that the decision to leave the Alliance “unfortunately is not in my hands“, his words became a real sensation.
So far, demands for leaving NATO in Slovakia have been associated mainly with far-right parties such as the openly fascist People's Party - Our Slovakia of Marian Kotleba, or the Republic party, founded by members of the former political party.
Nevertheless, there are some in the government coalition supporters of Slovakia's withdrawal from NATO. First of all, in the Slovak National Party (SNP) of Andrej Danko, but similar statements have also been made by some members of Fico's Smer-SD party.
However, Fico himself has never questioned the advisability of Slovakia's membership in NATO.
"Robert Fico is crazy about the idea of Slovakia's neutrality. Let's first say what this actually means - withdrawal from NATO," commented the leader of the opposition party Progressive Slovakia Michal Šimečka.
In a few minutes I will participate in a round table with the President of the Slovak Republic to discuss the country's position regarding the NATO summit. And at the same time, Prime Minister Fico is de facto talking about leaving the defense alliance, which is absolutely key to Slovakia's security. In this way, he calls into question our entire foreign policy orientation, breaks off our relations with key partners and throws us into Putin's arms," the oppositionist said.
A course towards elections?
It is worth noting that the statement of neutrality is fully consistent with the general rhetoric of the Slovak Prime Minister in recent weeks.
For example, Fico publicly supported a referendum on lifting sanctions against Russia. "How can we prepare a huge package of sanctions against the Russian Federation at a time when peace negotiations are underway? This only confirms that the conversations I hear in the West are completely insincere," he said a month ago.
Or the initiative to amend the constitution to define the family as a union between a man and a woman (discussed below).
And that's without mentioning the scandalous visit of the Slovak Prime Minister (the only one among EU leaders) to Moscow for the May 9 parade.
In other words, Fico is actively flirting with a low-educated, conservative, EU-skeptical and loyal to Russia voter. Traditionally, such voters vote for far-right forces. Now, however, Fico (who still positions his party's ideology as social democratic) is trying to “attract“ them to his side.
Therefore, it is possible that the intensification of anti-Western statements is part of the preparation for early parliamentary elections.
However, these attempts met with unexpectedly strong resistance from the Slovak president.
"Neutrality means that you are not part of any of the major international institutions, but then you have to guarantee everything yourself. And then maybe we will talk about seven, eight, ten (percentage of GDP for defense - ed. note) and we will not be able to cope at all," said President Peter Pellegrini.
Moreover, for the first time Pellegrini criticized Fico personally and in an extremely sharp manner. Drawing attention to the fact that support for NATO membership is part of the government's program declaration, the president called Fico's words "a provocative idea that threatens the public space".
"I think this is purely his (Fico's) personal position, perhaps again some political issue", concluded Pellegrini.
Such criticism from the president may indicate the presence of serious conflicts in the Slovak government. And it is possible that these conflicts will be exacerbated by plans for early elections.
"Re-shuffling" of the conservatives
In short, despite the fact that Fico managed to overcome the conflicts in the coalition and return it to a parliamentary majority, the problems have not disappeared. Managing such a diverse coalition is becoming increasingly difficult.
And this is becoming an increasingly dangerous challenge, especially considering that the government will soon have to reduce budget spending.
Therefore, there is reason to believe that the prime minister is not only thinking about elections, but also preparing for them.
However, Fico will make his final decision only if he has good reasons to expect victory.
However, at the moment, the sociological data seem disappointing for Fico: in the event of new elections, the current coalition has no chance of retaining its majority.
Although the prime minister's party, Smer-SD, maintains a high rating (including due to attracting far-right voters), the indicators of Fico's coalition partners, the "Voice" party, which is associated with President Pellegrini, have fallen significantly (its rating has almost halved and is now hovering around 8%), as well as the Slovak National Party (which currently has no chance of overcoming the 5% threshold).
But Fico has a plan to solve this problem.
The government is currently considering raising the threshold from 5% to 7%. Such a move could leave most opposition parties out of parliament, which could ensure victory for the current coalition.
The problem, however, is that the junior coalition partners from Smer-SD are clearly not happy with this plan. After all, if the threshold is raised, even “Voice“ could end up out of parliament, and the SNP's chances of entering it would drop to zero.
At the same time, these parties are also not happy with the proposal to run as a single bloc. Ultimately, this would increase Fico's influence over the coalition partners and could lead to the “swallowing“ of these parties in Smer-SD.
This risk seems particularly relevant for “Voice“, since there is both a group that is oriented towards Fico (it includes the new leader of the party, Matus Szutaj Estok), and opponents of such a rapprochement (they are oriented towards President Pellegrini).
So it is possible that Peter Pellegrini's sharp criticism of Fico is primarily part of a political struggle - an attempt to protect the status quo and avoid early elections.
However, something else is needed for the overall success of Fico's plan.
On June 17, the Slovak parliament was supposed to vote on the draft constitutional amendments proposed by the government. These changes concern the definition of the family as a union between a man and a woman.
Fico needs this initiative not only to flirt with conservative voters. The government made this proposal knowing that the coalition did not have the votes to approve the constitutional changes.
Instead, the government initially hoped to include members of the opposition Christian Democratic Movement (CDM) in this process, thereby weakening the opposition.
However, not all HDM deputies agreed to vote for Fico's draft law, even if it was in line with the party's ideology. As a result, the vote on amending the constitution was postponed until the autumn.
But this formal failure rather plays into Fico's favor.
The current conflict within the HDM significantly reduces the movement's chances of holding early elections. At the same time, it gives Fico hope of attracting part of the Christian Democratic electorate.
And if this plan works, Fico may decide to call early elections in the fall.
In the meantime, he will continue to expand his electorate by playing to the far right.
Yuri Panchenko - EuroPravda
translated by: Nick Iliev