Who with a huge pile of corruption scandals, who on the "Magnitsky" list, who with fascist beliefs, who is a complete simpleton... Why do such politicians in Bulgaria regularly succeed, while the honorable and educated seem to be doomed?
How is it that educated, well-mannered, honorable and modern-minded people in Bulgarian politics resign and retire, while poorly educated, arrogant, compromised and retrograde in their understandings individuals remain on the scene and in power, regardless of what scandals pass?
The events of the last few days around "We continue the change" and the resignation of Kiril Petkov as leader raise this important question. In the end, something similar is happening as after the resignation of Hristo Ivanov in "Yes, Bulgaria". Everyone - hypocritically or not - takes into account the high moral qualities of the resigning party and even regrets that he is resigning. The curious thing was that even Delyan Dobrev - who became famous mainly for his sharp tongue against the PP - described Kiril Petkov as an honest and respectable person who has borne the guilt of others.
A selection in which not the best comes out on top
Leaving aside the political jokes in what has been said, the interesting fact is that it confirms the above paradoxical result: the honorable ones are leaving Bulgarian politics, their parties and coalitions are under attack, and individuals and organizations, as if taken out of Orwell's “Animal Farm“. Some with a huge pile of corruption scandals, some on the “Magnitsky“ list, some with illegitimate influence in the services, some with fascist beliefs, some a complete simpleton…
This result of reverse selection – a process in which not the best comes out first – is worth considering. Many will probably jump straight into folk psychology and start blaming Bulgarian customs and culture for the paradoxical result. The Arab traveler Ibn Fadlan, who visited Volga Bulgaria around 921, wrote the following about our blood brothers (unfortunately, they went in the wrong geographical direction):
“If [they] meet or see a person who has energy and flexibility and knowledge of things, [they] say: “This one has the right to serve our Lord. And so they take him, put a rope around his neck, hang him from a tree, hold him until he dies.“
Folk psychologists may find that in the centuries that followed, the proto-Bulgarian practices became civilized and the tree, the rope, and the staking were abandoned. But a similar result is achieved by banishing the energetic and knowledgeable to the political afterlife.
Folk psychology is a controversial science, quickly moving from anecdote to generally valid conclusion. Therefore, it will be abandoned here in favor of a more structural analysis of the reasons for the reverse selection that is observed in contemporary Bulgarian politics. And that the proto-Bulgarians are not to blame for it is evident from the fact that similar trends exist in other countries, many of which are even considered “established democracies“. In general, although there is political pluralism and competition in our country, the playing field is tilted in favor of of corrupt and dishonest players.
Services, investigators, prosecutor's office, court
The referee in the match, unfortunately, has been bought and controlled. This is a weak excuse for losing, but it does not change the fact. In the last year, the Anti-Corruption Commission has been dealing mainly with the opponents of the “New Beginning“. Everyone is under enormous pressure, some have turned and become members of either GERB or directly of Delyan Peevski's formation. Apart from pressure and some fiscal carrots, there are no other reasons for such a turn.
Election manipulations
The control over services and investigators allows for election manipulations in favor of the parties of the dishonest. Some of these manipulations were documented by the Constitutional Court and it is a credit to its members that they tried to limit their electoral effect. Unfortunately, the correction – the entry of “Majesty“ – was rather marginal, and the investigators did not use the Constitutional Court's decision to take action to punish the manipulators.
Party financing
Parties that play by the rules are facing major financial problems. The reduction in party subsidies and the fall in electoral activity have greatly reduced public funds for parties. This is not a problem for those who have always relied on hidden financing. Buying votes, for example, obviously cannot be done with money from the state subsidy.
Budget bonuses for clients
Corrupt parties in Bulgaria have developed complex clientelistic schemes with "hoop rings" of companies waiting to be fed with government orders. Entire sectors - such as road construction - are covered by these rings. Anyone who wants to change things faces a boycott. When in the period 2021-2023 they tried to build highways according to the rules, the process practically stopped due to sabotage by the main participants. And despite the obvious scandals with millions withdrawn by bums for the "Hemus" highway to the cash register, their investigation has so far yielded no results. This is because the entire system is corrupt, and this is not a single, isolated incident.
The same applies to the budget bonuses for municipalities and mayors who switch to the New Beginning and GERB. If threats from services and investigators are not enough, the budgetary carrot sweetens the deal.
Media
Some of the media are directly under the control of corrupt parties. But even the main television stations and the Bulgarian National Radio, in which there is some degree of independence, actually distort the playing field in favor of the dishonest. Their idea of \u200b\u200b“neutrality“ and giving the floor to the “other point of view“ very often leads to the fact that honest voices are suppressed by loud and unforgiving opponents. Sometimes quantity is enough to neutralize any quality.
Integrity and truth are expensive
Yuval Harari argues in “Nexus“ that truth is much more expensive than fake news, which puts it at a disadvantage in the “free market of ideas“. This market can easily be flooded with fakes that are worthless and can be industrially produced. For example, "Bulgarians will have their savings taken away when we enter the eurozone". This is an absurd statement, but when reproduced on a mass scale it has some effect.
The same is true of honesty. Dishonesty is much cheaper and economically fickle: yesterday someone passionately defended some ideas, tomorrow they are just as passionately defending the opposite. This is convenient and cheap, and it does not cause reputational damage, because reputation does not exist anyway. It is not necessary to invest years in building it. For this model to work, however, the audience must be convinced that everyone is dishonest. When dishonesty is the norm, then the more impudent and vocal wins.
Honest people are the vast majority in any society. But because there are many of them, it is very difficult for them to coordinate. The dishonest are few and their coordination is easy. Especially when they are in key positions, with “you to me, I to you“ they can go very far and outsmart their opponents. Especially if these opponents are divided on many other grounds.
The populist inflation of “corruption“
The rise of populism around the world is related to the strategy of certain politicians to convince the voter that other politicians are “elite“ who are corrupt and do not care about “the people“. The accusation should not be based on a specific accusation of corruption, on some real scandalous affair, but simply on an allegation of alienation from the “real“ needs of the people. Populists are most easily recognized by their oaths that they "work for the people". And so the following paradox can arise: someone who is covered in corruption scandals claims that his opponents are "corrupt" because they have distanced themselves and "do not work for the people".
Populism allows the emergence of such figures - corrupt, but close to the people - and even opposes them to their opponents, who may be honorable, but are "far from the people", orphans, cosmopolitans, genderqueers, etc. In this sense, the rise of populism provides an opportunity for an unexpected vindication of the dishonest and corrupt.
Bulgaria is still moving forward
Structural distortions in favor of dishonesty and corruption are a fact, but they are no excuse for the inability of Bulgarian society to deal with these problems by bringing them within the bounds of decency. Despite the negative selection, Bulgaria is moving forward and modernizing, which is possible due to two phenomena. The first is that, of course, honest modernizers constantly appear in politics. The problem is that due to structural distortions not in their favor, their fate is usually that of political victims. After a (relatively) short rise, they have to leave. But the role of people like Ivan Kostov, Hristo Ivanov, Kiril Petkov is to follow the right modernization path in a difficult moment: to introduce the currency board, to carry out privatization, to guarantee a path to the EU, to change fiscal policy, to fight for the rule of law, to break with energy dependence on Russia, etc. All this has happened and is happening, but the drivers of these processes have had to step down and even exit politics. The important thing is that the country is moving forward, many would say.
The second possibility, which should not be underestimated, is the modernization of the country carried out by corrupt and authoritarian people who cling to power tooth and nail. Stefan Stambolov is an example and inspiration for lovers of gray in morality. But his fate is truly tragic, and other attempts at authoritarian or corrupt modernization of Bulgaria are not really worth mentioning. Therefore, the best way to get out of the trap of negative selection is simply to eliminate the listed structural reasons for its occurrence.
This requires a lot of work, perseverance and coordination of the vast majority of honest people in the country.
This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State News Agency as a whole.