What could Putin and Trump agree on in Alaska? According to experts, Putin is ready for some concessions, but they would actually give him an advantage. However, there are also factors that would force him to accept a truce.
The upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump on August 15 is the first since the re-election of the American president. In mid-July, Trump said that he was disappointed with Putin over the Russian bombing of Kiev, but "he has not finished negotiations with him yet."
Who is the meeting more beneficial to?
The announcement of the upcoming meeting in Alaska was made after the visit of Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow. However, the question of what exactly the two presidents will discuss remains open. It is clear that it will be about Ukraine, which will not be represented at the meeting - President Volodymyr Zelensky is not expected to participate.
According to observers who expressed their opinions to DW, the meeting will be beneficial primarily for the Russian president. "Putin has always wanted to determine the fate of the world together with the American president - regardless of who exactly holds this position," says former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.
Russian opposition figure Dmitry Gudkov, who lives in exile, notes that the meeting in Alaska will be a unique opportunity for Putin to shake hands with one of the leaders of the Western world - something he would not want to miss. "The very fact that he has the opportunity to meet with Trump is already a huge plus for Putin. "Thus, Trump de facto legitimizes a war criminal and gives him the right to participate in negotiations with the West," Gudkov points out, adding: "If it weren't for Trump, no one would negotiate with Putin."
Why is Putin now inclined to concessions
In July, it became clear that Trump was irritated by Putin's lack of readiness to stop the fighting in Ukraine. He said that he was no longer so interested in talks with Putin and gave him an ultimatum of 50 days to find a peaceful solution, a deadline that was later shortened to ten days. According to observers interviewed by DW, the awareness that Trump was losing patience probably prompted the Kremlin to accept the upcoming negotiations.
Political scientist Kirill Rogov, for his part, points to the worsening situation in the Russian economy, the slow progress of the Russian army in Ukraine, and the potentially dangerous secondary US sanctions for Russia. From this perspective, it is in Putin’s interest to seek an end to the war.
“Putin hopes that he can sell his consent now for a much higher price than at some later point. At the end of the year, Putin’s position may deteriorate significantly if it turns out that the Russian offensive is ineffective and the situation on the front has not changed,” Rogov says. At the same time, Russia may lose India as an oil buyer due to secondary US sanctions and will be forced to prepare for another offensive.
Who would benefit from a ceasefire in the airspace?
Last week, the “Bloomberg“ agency wrote, citing anonymous sources, that the Kremlin understood that Steve Witkoff’s visit was the last chance to reach an agreement with Trump. According to the agency, the Kremlin could make a concession by agreeing to a ceasefire in the airspace.
However, Dmitry Gudkov believes that such an approach will benefit Moscow, not Kiev. This is due to the fact that Ukraine has recently been conducting effective counterattacks, which have led to the closure of Russian airports. In addition, Russian weapons depots, military equipment and refineries have been hit. This is important from a psychological point of view, so that Russians realize that the war is close to them, and not just on TV, Gudkov emphasizes. “If these Ukrainian air strikes stop, Putin will be able to safely continue advancing on land, where he has an advantage.“
Trump's special attitude towards Putin
Even if Trump and Putin do not achieve any serious progress in Alaska, the Russian president will still be able to avoid more serious consequences, believes political scientist Kirill Rogov.
“Putin can count on Trump's leniency towards him, since Trump's attitude towards Putin has always been special. Trump avoids situations of direct pressure on Putin. And every time pressure seems inevitable, Trump says that there was a new opportunity to reach an agreement and does not apply real pressure“, the expert notes. An example of this is the news about the negotiations between the two presidents against the backdrop of the expired ultimatum to the Kremlin.
What pressure can be applied to the Kremlin?
Dmitry Gudkov believes that there are no real means to put pressure on Russia. For example, despite the sanctions, hundreds of tankers will continue to transport Russian oil around the world.
Gudkov links the hope for a quick truce not so much to external as to internal factors that could put the Kremlin under pressure. According to Gudkov, the longer the war continues, the harder it will be for Putin to present its outcome as a victory for Russia. “Someday, Russians will become indifferent to whether Ukraine is in NATO and how the war ends - the important thing is that it ends,” the oppositionist believes.