Trump's tariffs on BRICS countries exceed those on many other countries in the world. India, China and Russia are now responding with a key summit in Tianjin. Is Trump pushing his biggest rivals towards a closer alliance?
Donald Trump has been accused of unintentionally bringing BRICS countries closer together by imposing higher tariffs on them than on other countries. The largest BRICS member, China, has yet to reach a deal with the Trump administration and expects triple-digit tariffs. Brazil and India have already been hit with 50% tariffs, with India bearing half of the burden because it buys Russian oil. South Africa has been hit with a 30% tariff, and even newer members like Egypt are facing higher tariffs as a result of their BRICS membership.
Trump has repeatedly warned that he will impose heavier tariffs on countries he associates with “anti-American policies,” as he calls them. This is clearly a reference to the BRICS’ attempt to shake up American global dominance.
Strategic negligence?
Former Indian Trade Representative Ajay Srivastava does not believe that the BRICS countries are threatened by Trump’s punitive tariffs. He said the US president's actions give them "a common motivation to stop relying on the US", even if each country's priorities are different.
These additional tariffs have caused general discontent among BRICS members, who are now expanding bilateral trade agreements in national currencies to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. The central banks of the economic union's member countries have also increased their purchases of gold, another signal of their desire to abandon the dollar.
Trump said that "BRICS is dead". However, critics accuse him of "strategic negligence" because of the potential unification that the US president is pushing for the bloc.
Xi, Modi, Putin meet in China
The latest sign of growing solidarity among BRICS members is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, which begins this Sunday. Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi are participating in the forum - along with leaders from about 20 other countries from the Global South. This is Modi's first visit to China in seven years.
Ahead of the summit, the Kremlin had insisted that China, Russia and India hold their first trilateral talks in six years as a step to strengthen the core of the BRICS alliance.
Is real rapprochement between India and China possible?
Trump's tariffs have prompted Delhi to step up its economic cooperation with China - direct flights between the two countries have resumed, visa regimes have been eased and trade talks have been renewed. The two countries have also held talks to resolve their border disputes.
However, suspicions remain that relations between India and China will not improve significantly despite this apparent rapprochement. Shilan Shah, an economist at London-based Capital Economics, points to China's close ties with India's arch-rival Pakistan as a reason for Delhi's continued wariness of Beijing. "The influx of cheap Chinese imports is undermining India's efforts to strengthen its domestic industry," Shah wrote in a study.
India's distrust of China and its longstanding ties with Washington could hurt the BRICS project's ambitions to advance. India still relies heavily on the American market and technology, with exports to the US estimated at $77.5 billion in 2024, compared with much lower exports to Russia and China.
Deepening ties with China
Brazil also sought to boost bilateral trade with China, its largest trading partner, during a phone call earlier this month between Xi and Brazilian President Lula da Silva. China accounts for 26% of Brazil’s exports – double that of the US.
The fact that Putin and Xi appeared side by side at Russia’s May 9 parade also underscored the deepening cooperation between Moscow and Beijing. According to the Kremlin, more than 90% of bilateral trade between Russia and China is conducted in yuan and rubles.
South Africa, for its part, has remained steadfast in its commitment to BRICS - despite pressure from Trump. "The South African government is reluctant to back down from its commitments to BRICS, particularly on global governance reform, technology, agriculture, academic exchanges and bilateral trade," said Sanusha Naidoo, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue in South Africa.
How BRICS will move forward
BRICS is an increasingly fragmented alliance - the more it expands, the more divergent national interests of its members increase, which could further limit the bloc's ambitions. BRICS also appears increasingly authoritarian. Srivastava sees BRICS as "less of a perfectly united union and more of a pragmatic cooperation in trade, finance and supply chains".
Interestingly, intra-BRICS trade is subject to more barriers than those between countries in the Northern Hemisphere, a study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) found. It identified future signs of increased intra-BRICS trade cooperation, including the lifting of anti-dumping and other trade restrictions, steps towards a BRICS free trade agreement, unanimous support for reforms in the World Trade Organization and more foreign investment in the BRICS countries.
These ambitions are unlikely to materialize immediately, but intra-BRICS trade will become a priority, says Michaela Papa of the Center for International Affairs. The Russian proposal for a common currency for the BRICS to challenge the US dollar on the global financial stage is currently on hold. Rather, trade will continue through a mosaic of overlapping networks. “This won’t dethrone the dollar, but it will shake its monopoly,” Srivastava says.