Andrey Pertsev, a journalist and correspondent for the independent exile publication "Medusa", is one of the experts most familiar with the intricacies of Russian power. For the French daily L' Express he analyzes the ongoing negotiations between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders aimed at achieving peace in Ukraine. According to him, the Russian president "will do everything possible to make the meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart impossible without offending Trump".
L' EXPRESS: The meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska was good for Vladimir Putin, at least in terms of his image. What conclusions do you think he draws from the talks between Volodymyr Zelensky (accompanied by seven European leaders) and Donald Trump at the White House on August 18?
ANDREY PERTSEV: The meeting with Trump in Anchorage was, above all, a success for Putin in the eyes of Russian public opinion. Russian state and pro-government media presented it as a major step forward in overcoming the international isolation of the president and Russia as a whole. Perhaps Putin's success also lies in the fact that he wasted Trump's time.
However, this success must be viewed in perspective. The presidents of Russia and the United States failed to reach any agreement. Donald Trump canceled the planned lunch and quickly left Anchorage. The meeting lasted two and a half hours, although the Kremlin expected it to last much longer. As far as I understand, Putin and his entourage intended to put the war discussions on the back burner and captivate Trump with the prospect of trade "deals" for the Arctic and oil production. But it turned out that the American president is not ready to do this. So in this respect we cannot call it a success, although Russian propaganda presents almost every one of Putin's actions as a success or victory - or at least as part of a cunning plan.
It is clear that both sides are hiding something in the relations between the Kremlin and the White House. There was no scandal, there was no statement by Trump announcing the end of support for Ukraine, and no demands were made by Russia. So Putin should be careful before deciding what to do next.
L" EXPRESS: The Europeans avoided the worst in Washington, but they did not achieve anything really concrete. Does Putin still hold the trump cards in these negotiations?
ANDREY PERTSEV: It is difficult to say that Putin controls the situation in these negotiations. For example, the meeting with Zelensky is a condition of Trump, which he wants Putin to fulfill. Putin also failed to impose on Trump his preferred venue for the talks - the United Arab Emirates. His proposal to hold the next talks with Trump in Russia, and the talks with Zelensky in Moscow, also failed.
L' EXPRESS: Is a meeting between Putin and Zelensky possible? Putin seems to be ruling this out for now?
ANDREY PERTSEV: A meeting between Putin and Zelensky is possible, but it will be extremely difficult. First, the Russian president is a very spiteful and vindictive person, and Zelensky has repeatedly criticized him harshly. Second, Russian propaganda has invested a lot in presenting Volodymyr Zelensky to the Russian public as an illegitimate leader who has no right to sign agreements, thus making a meeting with him "impossible".
Not to mention the insults directed at the Ukrainian president. It would be extremely difficult for propaganda to explain why Putin suddenly sat down at the negotiating table with this man. Civic leaders and business representatives understand that the Russian economy is already in trouble and that it will face even more serious problems after possible new US sanctions. While Trump insists on a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, they are trying to convince the president to agree, and their efforts may be crowned with success.
But for now, Putin is doing everything he can to make such a meeting impossible, while avoiding offending Trump, for example, by suggesting that it be held in Moscow. If the meeting turns out to be inevitable, the Kremlin will try to postpone it by all means possible, for example, by first organizing talks between foreign ministers, parliamentary leaders or presidential administrations, and may even propose talks at the level of prime ministers.
L' EXPRESS: Does Vladimir Putin really want a peace agreement? What would be his motives for stopping the war?
ANDREY PERTSEV: Civic leaders and businessmen are trying to get Putin to understand that the war is destroying the country and that it is time to end it. Lately, he has become more receptive to these proposals. That is why he agreed to meet with Trump. But the security forces convince him that the Ukrainian front is about to collapse, while some of his close associates hope that political and social protests will soon break out in Ukraine, which will also lead to the collapse of the front.
Putin is caught between two fires. He clearly wants to seize as much territory as possible. Putin loves to fight; he believes that he is living in a historic moment and restoring the pride of Russia and the glory of its army. It is no coincidence that this war is compared to the Great Patriotic War. But the threat of economic collapse could stop it.
L' EXPRESS: Do you think it is plausible that Vladimir Putin would accept, as Donald Trump claims, that the United States would provide security guarantees to Ukraine? What could he agree to in this regard?
ANDREY PERTSEV: I find it very difficult to imagine Putin accepting the presence of European or American troops in Ukraine unless he is extremely scared. Perhaps he would agree to some formal security guarantees, which would not necessarily mean automatic support for Ukraine in the event of a renewed attack on his part.
L' EXPRESS: Ultimately, what is Vladimir Putin's strategy? To gain time so that he can advance on the front?
ANDREY PERTSEV: Putin really wants to gain time; he, or rather the most rational part of his entourage, is trying to start a dialogue with Trump in order to convince him that Russia is also interested in negotiations and resolving the conflict. Meanwhile, the Russian army can occupy more territory. In addition, Putin and the security elites are still hoping for a collapse of the front and a political crisis in Ukraine. I do not think these hopes are justified. I would not be surprised if at some point Putin demands presidential elections in Ukraine in the near future. Some of his advisers believe that this would divide the country and thus allow the occupation of certain regions that the Kremlin still considers pro-Russian (Odessa, Kharkiv).
L' EXPRESS: Doesn't Putin win in both cases? If the fighting continues, he can take advantage of his numerical advantage on the ground. If it comes to negotiations, he can ratify his territorial gains through them.
ANDREY PERTSEV: Russia certainly has numerical superiority on the front line, but its army is advancing rather slowly. It may take several years to capture the remaining territories in the Donetsk region, especially since these areas are well fortified. By then, the Russian economy could suffer irreparable damage. In addition, Putin's reserve of volunteers is running out: in late 2024 and early 2025, the recruitment of contract soldiers increased sharply, as people hoped that Trump would quickly make peace, that they would make a lot of money and that they would not have to fight. Today, the number of volunteers is decreasing, although the countries are closer to peace than a year or six months ago. This most likely means that the reserve of men ready to fight for money is almost exhausted. Of course, Putin could restart mobilization, but this is an extremely unpopular measure that would again hit the economy, which is already facing a labor shortage.
L' EXPRESS: What is Putin's method of manipulating Trump? He managed to convince him that a ceasefire was not necessary to start negotiations...
ANDREY PERTSEV: This is more of a method used by Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund, to manipulate Trump: he is trying to divert the conversation to trade agreements, familiar territory for Trump. And so far it is working. For his part, Putin resorted to a simple trick: either he gave Steve Witkoff vague information about his demands, or Witkoff misunderstood and the Kremlin did not clarify its position. This allowed Putin to secure a meeting with Trump, during which he presented different conditions. But this trick did not work: the American president ended the meeting prematurely.
L" EXPRESS: Do Vladimir Putin's goals regarding Ukraine remain unchanged? What are they at the moment?
ANDREY PERTSEV: The Kremlin is betting on the internal destabilization of Ukraine and hopes to gain control over the regions that interest Putin. More broadly, the Kremlin leader would like all of Ukraine, except for its western part, to fall into Russia's orbit.
L" EXPRESS: How long can Russia continue the war, despite the state of its economy?
ANDREY PERTSEV: The information we are receiving about the Russian economy shows that it is in an increasingly deplorable state. Large companies, including those working on public procurement contracts and previously considered the most reliable, are being forced to switch to a four-day work week due to falling demand. The budget deficit at the end of July was already 30% higher than the initial forecast for the annual deficit and it is clear that it will continue to grow. If the war does not end, it risks leading to social crises. How prepared is Putin for this? That is a big question. There will always be people in his entourage who are able to provide him with optimistic figures.
L" EXPRESS: In the event of a ceasefire, do you think Russia will remain a threat to Ukraine and Europe?
ANDREY PERTSEV: Putin's actions will depend solely on his personal will: he will always find an excuse to violate the commitments that Russia has made, as happened with the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.