Concerned by Russia's massive military spending since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are drawing up contingency plans that include evacuating hundreds of thousands of people in the event of a possible troop buildup or attack by Moscow, Reuters reported.
The three Baltic states, which were annexed by the Soviet Union during World War II, have for years warned NATO of the risk of Russian aggression, citing increased cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and airspace violations by Russian fighter jets and drones.
Although Moscow says it has no intention of attacking NATO countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have doubled their military budgets since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine and have stepped up cooperation in the field of civil protection.
"Threats can be different," said Renatas Pozela, head of the Lithuanian fire service, which is involved in developing the plans. According to him, the scenario could include the appearance of a "powerful army" on the borders of the Baltics, the aim of which would be to take over the three countries within three days to a week.
In addition to a military invasion, the risks discussed include sabotage of communications and transport, a mass influx of migrants, internal unrest among Russian-speaking minorities and information provocations that could cause panic and flight.
Lithuania held a drill this week to evacuate 100 people from the capital Vilnius, but according to authorities, the real plans include hundreds of thousands. Half of the residents living within a 40km radius of the borders with Russia and Belarus - about 400,000 people - are on the list of potential evacuees.
The city of Kaunas is ready to accept up to 300,000 people, who will be accommodated in schools, universities, Catholic churches and even the city arena used for concerts. Similar measures are being prepared in other settlements.
The authorities have already identified assembly points, evacuation routes, as well as warehouses with supplies - including mattresses, toilet paper and other basic necessities. People who will leave by car will be directed to secondary roads to free up the main infrastructure for military needs.
"This is a message to society - we are ready and we are planning," said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budris, quoted by Reuters.
Estonia is preparing plans to place about 10% of its population (140,000 people) in temporary shelters, while the rest will be able to stay with relatives. In the border city of Narva, where two-thirds of the residents are Russian-speaking, about half of them could be evacuated with state assistance.
In Latvia, the state fire and rescue service estimates that up to a third of the population - approximately 600,000 people - could have to leave their homes in a crisis.
"We are planning for everything," summed up Ivars Nakurts, deputy head of the Latvian rescue service.
The Baltic governments emphasize that they have no intention of withdrawing the population beyond their borders, but maintain constant coordination with Poland along the Suwałki Corridor - a narrow and strategically vulnerable area between Russia and Belarus, which is the Baltics' only land connection with the rest of NATO.