Too general and vague - according to many experts, this is the best description of the US peace plan for Gaza, with which Trump put strong pressure on Israel and Hamas for a ceasefire. The main mediators, as well as some observers, argue that this vagueness was deliberately sought and is actually necessary to reach an agreement between the Palestinian group Hamas and the Israeli government. Others say the vague wording means there is still much to negotiate, and the lack of clarity could lead to renewed fighting.
Although Israel and Hamas have agreed on the first phase of a ceasefire plan, it is too early to talk about peace, Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) told DW. "The key to a successful truce is how well both sides will keep their end of the bargain." Issues such as the demilitarization of Gaza, the proposed "international stabilization force," international guarantees and the long-term intentions of the Israeli government are still being discussed, he said.
Will Israel withdraw completely?
Gaza is a coastal strip 41 kilometers long and 10 kilometers wide. After two years of conflict, the Israeli army appears to control most of the territory. The US peace deal says that Israel will not control or annex Gaza and that Israeli troops must withdraw once Israeli hostages are freed. On Monday (October 13), Hamas released all remaining living hostages, and sources say Israeli troops have partially withdrawn in the past few days - to the so-called “yellow line“ inside Gaza. If they remain there, it will mean that the Israeli army will continue to control about half of the coastal strip.
The peace deal provides for a withdrawal even further back - to the “red line” - once other conditions are met. One of these is the deployment of an international stabilization force in Gaza, and once control of Gaza is taken over by a new transitional authority, the Israeli army will withdraw even further back. The peace agreement, however, does not specify a timetable, so it is unclear when all this will happen.
If the withdrawal is complete, Israeli troops must return to the buffer zone between Israel and Gaza, which has been significantly expanded in recent years - from an initial 300 meters from the border to about 700 - 1,100 meters inside Gaza. That is about 17% of the coastline, and legalizing this expansion would mean the permanent destruction of communities and the seizure of agricultural land, warns the Israeli non-profit organization Gisha, which advocates for the free movement of Palestinians.
What is the International Stabilization Force?
Point 15 of the peace plan states that the United States will cooperate with Arab and international partners to deploy an International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza. They will work with Israel and Egypt to provide security along the Gaza border, and will also train and support the new police force.
But the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warned that the creation of a peacekeeping contingent could face serious obstacles: "Without clear Palestinian support, including from Hamas, which opposes the idea, it is difficult to imagine that any Arab forces would be willing to deploy on the ground," CSIS said.
A spokesman for the French foreign ministry told reporters that the country was ready to contribute to the ISF. Germany would provide funds for assistance but would not send troops. Egypt has floated the idea of US troops. About 200 US troops have already arrived in Israel to help set up a "civil-military coordination center." They will not enter Gaza, however.
Hamas' future remains unclear
Media reports suggest that Hamas is now taking control of security in the Gaza Strip. Hamas fighters are fighting enemy groups in Gaza, some of whom have committed crimes such as looting humanitarian aid. Observers point out that there are no specific criteria for what demilitarization should look like, nor a deadline for its implementation. This gives both Israel and Hamas the opportunity to delay the process.
Israel may refuse to withdraw its forces to the red line until there is "full demilitarization," but no one knows exactly what that would entail, says Hugh Lovatt of the ECFR. "Even if Hamas's leadership accepts Israel's demand, many of its fighters are likely to refuse to hand over their weapons and may defect to more radical groups," he adds.
Other observers note that Hamas is much more than just a military group. It is also a political party with an ideology based on resistance to Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories, and it is likely to continue to exist as a political force. The peace plan calls for Palestinian statehood and self-determination. But again, he gives no details on how this could happen.
Who guarantees compliance with the peace plan?
Most observers agree that since the 20-point plan lacks the necessary specifics, someone must take on the task of concretizing it. “To appease the right wing and ensure his own political survival, Netanyahu may be tempted to resume the war against Hamas after the hostages are released,“ experts from the International Crisis Group (ICG) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine. To prevent such a development, the US will have to exert continuous pressure on Israel, observers add.
“The plan could fail if the US becomes tired or distracted, or if it again succumbs to the influence of Israeli hardliners“, wrote in turn in the “Financial Times“ Emile Hokayem, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Author: Catherine Scheer