ISW on the strike on Putin's residence: The circumstances do not fit the pattern of the observed evidence

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not registered any confirmation of Russia's claims about the alleged Ukrainian strike on Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai. This is stated in the latest report by analysts who analyzed the accusations of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Focus writes.

"Lavrov condemned this alleged strike and said that Russia would "reconsider" its negotiating position due to the strike. U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call on December 29, and Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin briefed Trump on the alleged strike and told him that Russia would "reconsider" its position on the peace accords. At the time of writing, the United States has not released a transcript of the December 29 call between Trump and Putin, although U.S. officials - including Trump - have confirmed that the call took place and that Putin made statements to Trump about the alleged strike," the American institute said.

""The circumstances surrounding this alleged strike do not fit the pattern of evidence observed when Ukrainian forces carry out strikes in Russia."

The ISW said that the reports of the "attack" do not contain any characteristic features of confirmed Ukrainian strikes. Open sources lack videos with geolocation, footage of explosions, fires or smoke near the site, comments from local officials or reports by regional media about damage.

Analysts also note the contradictions in Moscow's official statements. Lavrov said that the Russian air defense had shot down 89 Ukrainian drones over the Novgorod region, while the Russian Defense Ministry reported only 47 drones on the night of December 28-29. “Such discrepancies undermine the credibility of the Kremlin's statements”, ISW emphasizes.

The institute points out that Ukrainian forces have previously carried out strikes on military targets in the Novgorod region and these attacks have been confirmed. At the same time, the Russian side has not provided any facts to support the version of the strike on Putin's residence on December 29.

Additional doubts are also raised by the statement of the Russian opposition media outlet Sota. According to its data, the residents of Valdai did not hear the operation of air defense systems at night. The media outlet concluded that the defeat of the highly protected residence would be “technically impossible“ and could only happen “by a miracle“ or with targeted encouragement from the military command.

ISW also recalls that from 2022 to August 2025, Russia significantly strengthened air defense around Valdai - the number of defense systems increased from two to twelve.