After the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro, tension and uncertainty reign among the population in Venezuela. There is still no electricity in parts of the capital and people are afraid to go outside, says Venezuelan economist Manuel Sutherland, who lives in the capital Caracas. He also reports for the German public broadcaster ARD that supermarkets have temporarily restricted sales as a measure against possible looting.
Was Maduro betrayed by his own entourage?
Venezuelan political analyst Jesus Renzullo from the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies GIGA draws attention to some rumors and other signals that Maduro may have been betrayed by the Venezuelan leadership: “It is very likely that Nicolas Maduro was betrayed by his own political leadership. This is some kind of internal theater that the US tolerates. And Marco Rubio has made it very clear that the Venezuelan government can do whatever it wants and say whatever it wants as long as it obeys Washington“.
"The theater" the political expert is talking about is evident in the public statements of Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who took over after Maduro was ousted and demonstratively emphasized that Maduro is the only legitimate president of the country. The 56-year-old lawyer has been the most important mediator between Caracas and Washington for years – she and her brother led the negotiations with the US on behalf of Maduro, the German media recalls.
According to Jesus Renzullo, the Venezuelan government is following a two-pronged strategy. It does not want to change the ideological line it has maintained for years, which is why it talks about “anti-imperialism“ and “Venezuelan sovereignty“ – but this is just rhetoric: “It would be very strange for the political factions in the country to suddenly declare that they are now part of the American sphere of influence“, says the scholar.
Washington is putting pressure
But interim President Rodriguez is also in a very delicate situation. Washington is putting pressure on her, and the demands from there are very specific: Venezuela should break off relations with its previous allies Russia and China, and American oil companies should return to Venezuela - the country that has the largest oil reserves in the world.
However, Rubio has not yet asked Caracas to release Venezuelan political prisoners. It is precisely this clear signal of democratic intentions that is missing, Ranzullo commented. The only demand was the release of American prisoners.
The role of the military is decisive
In this tense situation, the role of the military, which is a fundamental factor in power in Venezuela, is decisive. Until now, they have been loyal to the leftist authoritarian government of Maduro, and a change of regime for them could mean the loss of economic privileges. In addition, some of the military are responsible for arbitrary arrests, torture and murders of opposition figures and should also be held accountable in court. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino is currently standing behind interim leader Rodriguez, and the ranks appear united - at least at first glance, ARD points out.
However, economist Sutherland sees enough conflict potential: “Delsi Rodriguez is not popular among the military. And they have their own demands. There are about 2,500 generals in the country and they all want guaranteed benefits“.
Opposition leader Machado left empty-handed?
At this time, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is in exile, where she is waiting for her chance. She was able to quickly win the support of the majority of Venezuelans and unite the divided opposition. In October, the 58-year-old Machado received the Nobel Peace Prize - this was a controversial decision, as she did not distance herself from the US rhetoric of intervention and openly sought the proximity of Donald Trump. But it was the US president who put an end to her plans, stating that Machado could not count on support, ARD recalls.
According to Jesús Renzulo, Machado still has some potential. It can remobilize its supporters, reorganize them, and apply pressure from within so that Washington forces Caracas to make a democratic transition through free elections. This will be the most critical and difficult process, and will inevitably require the full coordination of democratic forces in the country. From the outside, this will be difficult, since many of the opposition representatives who could mobilize the people are outside the country.
Trump's demands these days clearly show that he is talking about access to Venezuela's oil reserves and geopolitical influence in the region. So far, there have been no demands for democratic reforms or free elections. It is obvious that Venezuela must return to the US sphere of influence under the leadership of a government that is ready to cooperate with Washington - regardless of whether that government has democratic legitimacy or not, ARD also points out.
Author: Anne Demer ARD