During this time, Stalin's army captured Berlin! 2026 could turn out to be very bad for Vladimir Putin

Experts consider the fact that the war in Ukraine has already lasted longer than the so-called "Great Patriotic War", to which the Kremlin has given a sacred status, a turning point. The two wars in Russia are constantly compared, and the result is not in favor of Vladimir Putin, writes The Wall Street Journal, quoted by Focus.

The year started badly for the Russian president. The war in Ukraine has lasted as long as the Great Patriotic War, as Moscow calls the Soviet Union's participation in World War II: 1,418 days. During this time, Stalin's troops reached Berlin, but Putin's progress has been more modest. Last year, Russian troops captured less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s territory. At this rate, it will take Russia another year to reach the border of the Donetsk region and establish control over the territory that Putin demands from Ukraine as a precondition for peace.

And Putin is rapidly losing allies from his “axis of evil” and bringing Russia’s economy to an absolutely pitiful state, which is already starting to affect even his oligarch friends, says WSJ analyst Amy Knight, author of books about Vladimir Putin.

The swift capture by the US military of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife on January 3rd once again highlighted Russia’s military weakness. As Russian political scientist Abbas Galyamov noted: “The brilliant success of the Americans, which they showed with the example of Venezuela, which actually resembles a “special military operation”, further demoralizes the people of Russia - both ordinary people and the elite. The contrast between the high efficiency of the American military and special services and the striking inefficiency of their Russian counterparts is simply too obvious“. The fact that Maduro was the Kremlin's most important ally made the situation worse.

Another unpleasant incident for Putin was the situation when the US captured the oil tanker “Marinera“, which was traveling at full speed towards Russia, accompanied by Russian ships and a submarine.

Pro-war Russian bloggers were outraged and declared to their audience of millions that “your ships are captured, and in response to these slaps you only express concern, instead of tearing out the enemy's liver“.

Adding to Putin's problems was the fact that his long-time associate Dmitry Kozak, who recently resigned over the war in Ukraine, last month published an ambitious reform program in one of the leading Russian media outlets. According to Russian political scientist Oleg Ivanov, “the document really impresses with its courage, especially against the background of the current political rhetoric. Essentially, it is a program for a deep transformation of key state institutions, designed to respond to global and domestic challenges.

Putin can always silence Kozak. But when he announced his plans to invade Ukraine in February 2022, Kozak was not the only member of the Security Council to warn of the consequences. The Council’s chairman, Nikolai Patrushev (who was demoted but remains on the council), also expressed his concerns.

And those who supported Putin’s military ambitions are now very unhappy. The war in Ukraine is costing Russia and its oligarchs dearly. According to the Economist magazine, at least 100,000 Russian soldiers have died since the beginning of 2025 through mid-October. The front line has become a “defeat zone”, where drones destroy up to 80% of equipment and personnel.

Russia's total military spending in 2025 is estimated at 15.5 trillion rubles — in nominal terms, this is five times more than in 2021. This does not include the costs of maintaining the Ukrainian territories seized by Russia or payments to soldiers and their families. In November 2025, oil and gas revenues fell by 34% compared to the previous year. To cover the record budget deficit for 2025 (expected to amount to $72 billion, or 2.6% of gross domestic product) and to finance the military operations, Russia's value-added tax rate on goods and services increased from 20% to 22% on January 1.

This is raising the cost of living for ordinary Russians, who are increasingly less supportive of the so-called "SVO", as Russia persistently calls the war in Ukraine. The "Levada Center" survey shows that public opinion in Russia on the war has changed significantly. In December 2024, 37% believed that the war should continue, and 54% wanted to start peace talks; a year later, only 25% were in favor of continuing the conflict, and 67% wanted to start peace talks.

High interest rates to combat war-induced inflation have suppressed investment. Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch loyal to Putin, recently published a link to an editorial in a Russian newspaper criticizing

the government's failure to create a healthy investment climate. The editorial argues that "next year cannot be spent relying on inertia" and calls on the country's leadership "to focus on creating a reliable and developed capital market and financial services". Further frustrating for the elite is that its members cannot access their billions in private assets locked up in European banks.

Last week, Russia flatly rejected a plan by European and Ukrainian negotiators to create a peacekeeping force to guarantee a future ceasefire.

That same night, the Russian military struck the Lviv region, using a hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile for the second time since the start of the war. This, by the way, was also very expensive, since the price of one such missile ranges from 40 to 80 million dollars.

Putin is able to suppress the discontent of ordinary Russians with the help of repression, but he cannot continue this conflict without the support of his Kremlin entourage. This support could be undermined if the United States provides Ukraine with the weapons necessary to counter Russian drones and missiles. Therefore, war-weary colleagues - and those close to the oligarchs - can fully put pressure on Putin to sit down at the negotiating table with a peace plan that Ukraine could accept.

Meanwhile, Putin may lose another ally: protests continue in Iran, and on January 10, Donald Trump expressed his support for the protesters, declaring the readiness of the United States to help the Iranian people.